8822 Bahama Mia Ln · Ellenton, FL 34219

$369,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 6,050 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! EXTENDED REDTAG SALE Receive up to $30,000 towards Flex Cash & closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, May 3rd. Welcome to Seaire, our newest single-family home community where luxurious living meets a vibrant coastal lifestyle. Situated in the center of Parrish, Florida, Seaire offers a blend of modern convenience, resort-style amenities, and a warm, welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. At the heart of Seaire lies a breathtaking 4.5-acre crystal-clear lagoon, the centerpiece for relaxation and recreation. Whether you’re seeking adventure or a serene escape, the lagoon offers someth

Key facts

• Private bar
• Swim-up lagoon bar
• Splash pad

Tags

• CRYSTAL-CLEAR LAGOON
• PRIVATE BAR
• SWIM-UP LAGOON BAR
• SPLASH PAD
• WATER OBSTACLE COURSE
• SUPER SLIDE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available
• Financial info: CDD: yes; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Seaire Master Homeowners Association; Monthly HOA fee $100 (includes pool, internet, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities); Association amenities include playground and pool; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Completed new construction; Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Builder model: Cali); Projected completion April 17, 2026
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered); Irrigation equipment; Trees and landscaped grounds; Pool (other features)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,458 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-88,470
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-135,982
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,535/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $323,280

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.14mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	0.18mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.24mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	0.31mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	23d	1	0.45mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	23d	1	0.49mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	23d	1	0.52mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.66mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.75mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	0.80mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.83mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.83mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	0.98mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.04mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.09mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	1.11mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	23d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $369,000
3. 2026-04-22
   price $372,000
4. 2026-04-15
   price $374,000
5. 2026-04-10
   price $379,000
6. 2026-04-03
   price $384,000
7. 2026-03-25
   price $389,000
8. 2026-03-18
   price $392,000
9. 2026-03-13
   price $394,000
10. 2026-03-05
    price $399,000
11. 2026-02-26
    price $404,000
12. 2026-01-28
    price $407,000
13. 2025-12-29
    listed $409,990 Active
14. 2025-10-22
    soldstatus $3,486,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,535
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$10,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $372,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $374,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $379,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $384,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $392,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $394,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $404,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $407,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $3,486,000 Public Records