7439 Clamdigger Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2005 5,227 sqft lot $419/sqft · at area comps Est $445k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Bay Crest South neighborhood of Blaine offers comfortable single-level living at an exceptional starter price. Backing to a greenbelt, this property provides added privacy and a relaxed coastal lifestyle just minutes from Birch Bay. The bright and inviting living room features vaulted ceilings, recessed lighting, and a blend of hardwood and laminate flooring. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, new vinyl flooring, new carpet, and an updated kitchen with brand-new stainless appliances, including a gas range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area with direct access to the bac

Key facts

• Large utility shed
• Updated kitchen
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• BACKING TO A GREENBELT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE UTILITY SHED
• EASY I-5 CONNECTIVITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-702 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $342k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $247,778 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,213
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -4.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4728 Rock Crab Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$445,000	$439	90
7514 Seashell Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	9mo	$440,500	$434	88
7334 Yellow Fin Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	3mo	$454,500	$448	85
7337 Yellow Fin Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$460,000	$454	82
7482 Sole Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	12mo	$410,000	$404	82
7379 Yellow Fin Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	13mo	$449,000	$443	81
4836 Willow Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+5%)	1mo	$435,000	$409	72
4656 Bay Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,068 (+5%)	9mo	$875,000	$819	60
7417 Birch Bay Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,116 (+10%)	1mo	$915,000	$820	59
7567 Morrison Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+8%)	14mo	$429,000	$393	55
7315 Jackson Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+4%)	13mo	$515,000	$490	52
7631 Parkland Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (+14%)	3mo	$415,000	$359	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $186,871
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $585,708
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,366

Max offer price $300,985

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-461	-5% $-582	+0% $-702	+5% $-822	+10% $-943
Rent	-10% $-898	-5% $-800	+0% $-702	+5% $-604	+10% $-506
Rate	-1.0pp $-488	-0.5pp $-594	base $-702	+0.5pp $-812	+1.0pp $-924

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	15d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $425,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $435,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $435,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $435,000
18. 2026-03-23
    price $449,500
19. 2026-03-20
    listed $465,000 Active
20. 2020-11-10
    soldstatus $342,500 Sold
21. 2020-09-29
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2020-09-25
    listed $325,000 Active
23. 2013-11-15
    soldstatus $176,500 Sold
24. 2013-11-14
    soldstatus $176,500
25. 2013-09-09
    status Pending
26. 2013-07-23
    listed $183,000 Active
27. 2006-09-21
    soldstatus $190,000
28. 2005-09-29
    soldstatus $200,950
29. 2005-07-14
    listed $200,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,165 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,121/yr (+$93/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$16,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+116.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $435,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $449,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $465,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-10 Sold (MLS) $342,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-25 Listed $325,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-15 Sold (MLS) $176,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $176,500 Public Records
• 2013-09-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-23 Listed $183,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-29 Sold (MLS) $200,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-14 Listed $200,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,044 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.