3431 Santa Saba Rd · Borrego Springs, CA 92004

$372,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2007 0.36 ac lot $275/sqft · 13% above area Est $330k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath Southwest style home offers comfort, character, and functionality. The open concept kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living area with fireplace. Additional highlights include a spacious 2 car attached garage and an adjacent 0.34-acre lot located behind the property, providing added privacy and protection of your scenic views.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Main living area
• Attached garage

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MAIN LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $372k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $372k).
• Recommended offer: $350k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 6.0% in Borrego Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#712 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Borrego Springs Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,120 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $372k implies a 963% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 11→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.64%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,754
• List price: $372,000
• Delta: 12.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3456 El Tejon Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+5%)	1mo	$330,000	$233	80
3568 Borrego Springs Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$359,000	$265	79
872 Rango Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	19mo	$335,000	$239	72
721 Rango Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	15mo	$340,000	$261	64
3486 Swinging V Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+13%)	3mo	$399,000	$260	63
3299 Frying Pan Rd	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,247 (-8%)	4mo	$165,000	$132	57
737 San Pablo Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+4%)	16mo	$225,000	$159	55
762 San Pablo Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (+13%)	2mo	$330,000	$215	55
3212 Double O Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (+2%)	14mo	$320,000	$233	48
3251 Frying Pan Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	23mo	$389,000	$253	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $40,468
• Equity at exit: $55,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $164,831
• Equity at exit: $32,164

Cash invested: $104,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92004

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,951
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,671/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $372,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,000
• Closing costs: $11,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3382 Bar O Dr Borrego Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1720	$5,000	$2.91	1d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $372,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $372,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $372,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $372,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $372,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $372,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $372,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $372,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $372,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $372,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $372,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $372,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $372,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $372,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $372,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $372,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $372,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nicely designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath Southwest style home offers comfort, character, and functionality. The open concept kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living area with fireplace. Additional highlights include a spacious 2 car attached garage and an adjacent 0.34-acre lot located behind the property, providing added privacy and protection of your scenic views.

18. 2011-12-01
    historical
19. 2011-07-19
    price $134,900
20. 2011-06-27
    status Active
21. 2011-05-28
    historical
22. 2011-05-28
    listed $144,900 Active
23. 2009-07-10
    historical
24. 2008-11-07
    price $199,999
25. 2008-05-03
    price $224,900
26. 2008-03-19
    price $249,900
27. 2007-12-22
    listed $199,999
28. 2007-12-21
    historical
29. 2007-12-06
    listed $269,500
30. 2007-12-01
    historical
31. 2007-10-26
    price $279,900
32. 2007-07-10
    listed $279,900
33. 2007-07-08
    historical
34. 2007-02-24
    price $294,900
35. 2007-01-08
    listed $294,900
36. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,827 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,156/yr (+$96/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 11 d/yr ≥111°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,838
• − Property taxes: −$1,671
• − Insurance: −$3,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$10,822
• Taxable income: $13,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,298
• After-tax cash flow: $15,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Borrego Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0605700
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,330
• Composite: 26.31/100
• National rank: #12684
• State rank: #1120 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Borrego Springs

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #21334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Borrego Springs, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,030

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 24%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.39%
• Current HPI: 222.8196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+962.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $372,000 CRMLS
• 2011-12-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-07-19 Price Changed $134,900 SDMLS
• 2011-06-27 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listed $144,900 SDMLS
• 2009-07-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-11-07 Price Changed $199,999 SDMLS
• 2008-05-03 Price Changed $224,900 SDMLS
• 2008-03-19 Price Changed $249,900 SDMLS
• 2007-12-22 Listed $199,999 SDMLS
• 2007-12-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-12-06 Listed $269,500 SDMLS
• 2007-12-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-10-26 Price Changed $279,900 SDMLS
• 2007-07-10 Listed $279,900 SDMLS
• 2007-07-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-02-24 Price Changed $294,900 SDMLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $294,900 SDMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,671 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.