426 Martin Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1974 $49/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Huge Price Adjustment- Seller is Ready to Move this one out! PLEASE NOTE: Due Assocaition Requirements this has to be a cash sale. Discover the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and Florida charm in this inviting 2 bedroom, 2-bath double-wide home located in a friendly 55+ co-op community in beautiful Lakeland, FL. Whether you're searching for a warm winter retreat or an easy-living year-round residence, this home is truly move-in ready. Step inside to enjoy low-maintenance laminate flooring throughout and a bright, open layout. Relax on the * * large screened-in porch * * , ideal for morning coffee, evening breezes, or hosting friends. A mass

Key facts

• Active clubhouse
• Serene greenspace
• 8,024 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• MASSIVE STORAGE BUILDING
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• SERENE GREENSPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.18 acres); Lot dimensions about 75 x 99; Living area approximately 1152 square feet
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $49; Association required (Tony Allen; MENHO CORP); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west; Entry on one level
• Construction: Metal siding; Other roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Awnings; Shade shutters; Located on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window air unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $130,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $130k implies a 550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,951
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $27,318
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $508	+0% $471	+5% $434	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $402	+0% $471	+5% $540	+10% $609
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $504	base $471	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	24d	1	0.44mi
142 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	24d	1	0.50mi
8039 Ridgeglen Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,895	$1.37	11d	1	0.51mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	14d	1	1.03mi
6268 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,995	$1.34	24d	1	1.05mi
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.06mi
734 Fox Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,910	$1.43	4d	1	1.09mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	24d	1	1.11mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	1.11mi
858 Fox Lake Dr Unit 858 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,495	$1.15	11d	1	1.12mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	4d	1	1.12mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	1.20mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	15d	1	1.29mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	4d	1	1.30mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.33mi
8006 Brookeshire Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,890	$1.45	20d	1	1.37mi
6006 Crane Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	13d	1	1.45mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	1.45mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $130,000 Pending 177 DOM
2. 2026-02-09
   price $130,000
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2006-01-09
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$916
• After-tax cash flow: $4,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+550.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,451 · +141.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.