909 E 16th St · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1907 4,499 sqft lot $125/sqft · 6% above area Est $132k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this newly remodeled updated three bedroom, one bath home located close to the Ashtabula Harbor Area and Lakeshore Park. All new vinyl flooring on the main floor and carpet on the second level. Freshly painted throughout with a neutral color palette. Large kitchen with a butcher block island. Enjoy the covered front porch on those lazy summer days.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Remodeled
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED
• VINYL FLOORING
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family home; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor (carpeted)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas)
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the kitchen on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,096/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $139k implies a 315% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.13%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,627
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 5.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
949 E 6th St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,166 (+4%)	5mo	$160,000	$137	63
1307 W 9th St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+5%)	4mo	$56,999	$49	62
2123 Columbus Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-2%)	23mo	$119,500	$110	52
1142 W 8th St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,158 (+4%)	19mo	$117,015	$101	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $78,938
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $199,333
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $1,593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 Myrtle Ave Ashtabula, OH	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,600	$1.35	43d	1	1.24mi
1036 Union Ave Unit 1496086P Ashtabula, OH	3.0	1.0	1496	$5,341	$3.57	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $139,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $149,900 Active 360-char remark
17. 1997-06-30
    soldstatus $33,500
18. 1994-11-18
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 86.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,973
• − Management: −$2,973
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $17,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,295
• After-tax cash flow: $14,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+456.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $139,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-05 Listed $149,900 MLSNOW
• 1997-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 1994-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.