20 Lakeside Dr · Forest Park, GA 30294

$197,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1980 0.49 ac lot $125/sqft · 26% below area Est $268k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home situated on a spacious lot in the heart of Ellenwood-no HOA! Located in an established community, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to enjoy both indoors and out. The inviting open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Start your day on the covered front porch, or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the private backyard. The fenced backyard provides ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements-offering versatility to suit a variety of lifestyles.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private backyard
• Screened porch

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 566 students, 69% FRL); Austin Road Middle School (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Stockbridge High School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #284 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,543 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 43% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $198k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,650 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,024
• List price: $197,500
• Delta: -26.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Lakeside Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-0%)	10mo	$240,000	$152	81
95 Lakeside Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-1%)	21mo	$275,000	$176	74
50 Oakridge Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+11%)	8mo	$253,300	$145	68
312 Orchard Hill Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-13%)	14mo	$253,000	$184	47
106 Orchard Hill Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-14%)	24mo	$240,000	$177	45
4551 Mitchells Meadow Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+6%)	12mo	$291,775	$174	44
664 Fairview Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,490 (-6%)	15mo	$260,000	$174	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,353
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-51
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,634/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $197,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $143	+0% $87	+5% $31	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $12	+0% $87	+5% $162	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $137	base $87	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	21d	1	0.44mi
65 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	21d	1	0.44mi
4595 Westminster Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1689	$2,055	$1.22	23d	1	0.46mi
46 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	26d	1	0.47mi
48 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	21d	1	0.47mi
39 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	15d	1	0.49mi
37 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	46d	1	0.51mi
228 Solomon Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	2005	$2,150	$1.07	46d	1	0.72mi
4798 Moss Trce Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,990	$1.15	26d	1	0.89mi
3637 Windmill Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	26d	1	0.91mi
4402 Davana Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,578	$1.49	1d	1	1.27mi
3971 Brookstone Ct Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,256	$1.19	7d	1	1.33mi
4676 Tara Creek Trl Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2188	$1,966	$0.90	1d	1	1.37mi
4910 Brookstone Pkwy Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1728	$1,995	$1.15	4d	1	1.39mi
3346 Clevemont Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	2216	$1,771	$0.80	1d	1	1.40mi
3378 Homeward Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,695	$1.44	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $197,500 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,500 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,500 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,500 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $197,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,500 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,500 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,500 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $197,500 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home situated on a spacious lot in the heart of Ellenwood—no HOA! Located in an established community, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to enjoy both indoors and out. The inviting open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Start your day on the covered front porch, or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the private backyard. The fenced backyard provides ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements—offering versatility to suit a variety of lifestyles.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $197,500 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home situated on a spacious lot in the heart of Ellenwood—no HOA! Located in an established community, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to enjoy both indoors and out. The inviting open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Start your day on the covered front porch, or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the private backyard. The fenced backyard provides ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements—offering versatility to suit a variety of lifestyles.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $205,000 New 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home situated on a spacious lot in the heart of Ellenwood—no HOA! Located in an established community, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to enjoy both indoors and out. The inviting open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Start your day on the covered front porch, or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the private backyard. The fenced backyard provides ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements—offering versatility to suit a variety of lifestyles.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $205,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home situated on a spacious lot in the heart of Ellenwood—no HOA! Located in an established community, this property offers comfort, flexibility, and room to enjoy both indoors and out. The inviting open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Start your day on the covered front porch, or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the private backyard. The fenced backyard provides ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements—offering versatility to suit a variety of lifestyles.

18. 2026-03-19
    historical $1,699
19. 2026-03-11
    listed $1,699
20. 1994-10-25
    soldstatus $80,900
21. 1989-11-30
    soldstatus $67,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$3,634
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable loss: −$2,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $1,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forest Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #12698

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+192.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $197,500 GAMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $197,500 FMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $205,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $205,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Rental Removed $1,699 Tricon
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,699 Tricon
• 1994-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,900 Public Records
• 1989-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $67,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,634 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.