10422 Lauren Creek Dr · Baytown, TX 77523

$242,499

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,486 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2011 6,229 sqft lot Est $286k · 15% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stone accent. 2 story dream home that draws guests in w/its simple yet elegant formal dining room, which is to the right of the foyer. Further back, a generous family room adjoins kitchen & brkfst nook. Master bedroom is conveniently located on the 1st floor and includes a private master bath w/large walk-in closet, garden tub, & separate shower. Spacious game room, 3 additional bedrooms & a bath are on 2nd floor. Options include dual vanities in master bath, tile in kitchen & breakfast area.

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• 6,229 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• UPDATED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR INTERSTATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by PRESTIGE MGMT GROUP; Annual association fee of $350; Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2011; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Paved driveway; Concrete road access; Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Oven; Disposal; Breakfast nook (10 x 10); Kitchen (15 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (22 x 12); Two bedrooms on the second floor (each 12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation; Insulation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-295/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,224 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,890
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10502 Devinwood Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,403 (-3%)	22mo	$275,000	$114	72
5903 Shadow Creek Ct	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,305 (-7%)	1mo	$252,500	$110	69
402 Bayou Bnd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,315 (-7%)	6mo	$349,900	$151	60
113 Staples Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	20mo	$265,000	$113	49
6702 Chartrese Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,184 (-12%)	10mo	$315,000	$144	38
10022 Crystal Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,142 (-14%)	19mo	$319,990	$149	32
6703 Chartrese Ave	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,834 (+14%)	20mo	$325,000	$115	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,669
• Equity at exit: $36,157

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,640
• Equity at exit: $20,967

Cash invested: $67,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,296/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $238,155

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $44	+0% $-25	+5% $-93	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-119	+0% $-25	+5% $70	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $37	base $-25	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,625
• Closing costs: $7,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5831 Dylan Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2959	$1,400	$0.47	45d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $242,499 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,499 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,499 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,499 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $242,499 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,500 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,500 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,500 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,500 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,500 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,500 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $249,500 Active
15. 2011-02-25
    soldstatus 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Stone accent. 2 story dream home that draws guests in w/its simple yet elegant formal dining room, which is to the right of the foyer. Further back, a generous family room adjoins kitchen & brkfst nook. Master bedroom is conveniently located on the 1st floor and includes a private master bath w/large walk-in closet, garden tub, & separate shower. Spacious game room, 3 additional bedrooms & a bath are on 2nd floor. Options include dual vanities in master bath, tile in kitchen & breakfast area.

16. 2011-02-03
    historical 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Stone accent. 2 story dream home that draws guests in w/its simple yet elegant formal dining room, which is to the right of the foyer. Further back, a generous family room adjoins kitchen & brkfst nook. Master bedroom is conveniently located on the 1st floor and includes a private master bath w/large walk-in closet, garden tub, & separate shower. Spacious game room, 3 additional bedrooms & a bath are on 2nd floor. Options include dual vanities in master bath, tile in kitchen & breakfast area.

17. 2010-10-18
    listed $154,691 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Stone accent. 2 story dream home that draws guests in w/its simple yet elegant formal dining room, which is to the right of the foyer. Further back, a generous family room adjoins kitchen & brkfst nook. Master bedroom is conveniently located on the 1st floor and includes a private master bath w/large walk-in closet, garden tub, & separate shower. Spacious game room, 3 additional bedrooms & a bath are on 2nd floor. Options include dual vanities in master bath, tile in kitchen & breakfast area.

18. 2010-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,296 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,296 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,584
• − Property taxes: −$5,296
• − Insurance: −$2,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,291
• − Management: −$2,291
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,055
• Taxable loss: −$4,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2011-02-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-18 Listed $154,691 HARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,296 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.