27 Lake Claire Dr · Middletown, NY 10940

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1951 0.67 ac lot Est $200k · 28% under $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Retreat! Perched high above Claire Lake with breathtaking mountain views, endless vistas, and exceptional privacy, this unique property offers a rare opportunity to create your own Hudson Valley getaway. Located in a quiet area and ready to bring your vision to life, this hidden gem combines natural beauty, character, and potential. The distinctive floor plan features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a spacious living room, kitchen, dining area, and an adorable breakfast nook, all positioned to take advantage of the peaceful natural surroundings. Expansive decking provides the perfect place to enjoy the mountain and lake views, while the private wooded setting offers a tranquil escape from eve

Key facts

• Lake views
• Expansive decking
• Hiking trails

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• EXPANSIVE DECKING
• PRIVATE LAKE COMMUNITY
• HIKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association membership required; Association fee $200 monthly (includes other items)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-site parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area per public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances included
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Has a fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Minisink Valley Elementary School (475 students, 26% FRL); Minisink Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 775 students, 28% FRL); Minisink Valley High School (math 94% / reading 75%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,172 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $145k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.78%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,152
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Lake Claire Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	990 (-3%)	5mo	$195,000	$197	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,582
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $89,976
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,793/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,798

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 New York 211 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	976	$2,100	$2.15	13d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $145,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$4,793
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$500
• After-tax cash flow: $3,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minisink Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,292
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1897
• State rank: #254 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+480.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,793 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.