821 Louis Coleman Junior Dr · Louisville, KY 40211

$72,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1905 3,920 sqft lot Est $78k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2Bed/1Bath is rented for $550 per month with a Section 8 tenant who recently renewed their lease. Interior photos were taken before tenant moved in. Listing agent has an ownership stake in the property. Allow 48 hours for showings. See Documents tab for a list of other properties in this portfolio that are for sale.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Built in 1905; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Built in 1905
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.09 acres; Traditional-style single family residence

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No basement; No fireplaces; First-floor primary bedroom; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($32k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,325 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.83%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 W Kentucky St	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,104 (+2%)	2mo	$45,000	$41	82
722 S 37th St	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+1%)	4mo	$46,000	$42	82
844 Louis Coleman Jr Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-7%)	3mo	$109,000	$108	78
802 Sutcliffe Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,162 (+8%)	4mo	$110,000	$95	75
3419 Greenwood Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (-4%)	3mo	$120,000	$116	72
3414 Greenwood Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,213 (+12%)	8mo	$110,000	$91	59
3107 Dumesnil St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (-4%)	6mo	$32,000	$31	52
3229 Kirby Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	950 (-12%)	2mo	$45,000	$47	44
2615 Greenwood Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (-8%)	3mo	$71,000	$72	44
3322 Virginia Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,198 (+11%)	8mo	$180,000	$150	44
2645 Grand Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	926 (-14%)	3mo	$62,000	$67	40
3221 Virginia Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,239 (+15%)	9mo	$32,500	$26	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $15,166
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $54,513
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	0.07mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	3d	1	0.08mi
3515 W Kentucky St Unit 3515-12 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	24d	1	0.17mi
832 Hazel St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	3d	1	0.24mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	24d	1	0.30mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	10d	1	0.31mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	3d	1	0.32mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	16d	1	0.33mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	21d	1	0.41mi
729 S 39th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	24d	1	0.41mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.42mi
648 S 37th St #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	807	$850	$1.05	24d	1	0.44mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	21d	1	0.46mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	24d	1	0.46mi
1145 Louis Coleman Jr Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	913	$875	$0.96	24d	1	0.50mi
2912 Greenwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,150	$0.84	16d	1	0.51mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.53mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.54mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1300	$995	$0.77	24d	1	0.54mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #4 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,250	$0.87	24d	1	0.54mi
3215 Virginia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$924	$0.95	24d	1	0.55mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	24d	1	0.55mi
833 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	786	$1,250	$1.59	24d	1	0.56mi
836 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	19d	1	0.58mi
2724 Garland Ave Unit 202 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$745	$0.78	3d	1	0.60mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	0.62mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	24d	1	0.64mi
2710 W Kentucky St Apt 2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,300	$1.28	24d	1	0.65mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	16d	1	0.66mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	0.66mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	24d	1	0.67mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	20d	1	0.67mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	20d	1	0.68mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.69mi
3611 Regatta Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,450	$1.40	16d	1	0.74mi
714 S 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	16d	1	0.75mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	10d	1	0.76mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.80mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	24d	1	0.80mi
4018 Vermont Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	3d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,500 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,500 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,500 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,500 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,500 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,500 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,500 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $72,500 Active
15. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus $451,000
16. 2018-08-01
    soldstatus $106,250
17. 2015-10-16
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This 2Bed/1Bath is rented for $550 per month with a Section 8 tenant who recently renewed their lease. Interior photos were taken before tenant moved in. Listing agent has an ownership stake in the property. Allow 48 hours for showings. See Documents tab for a list of other properties in this portfolio that are for sale.

18. 2015-09-30
    status Pending 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This 2Bed/1Bath is rented for $550 per month with a Section 8 tenant who recently renewed their lease. Interior photos were taken before tenant moved in. Listing agent has an ownership stake in the property. Allow 48 hours for showings. See Documents tab for a list of other properties in this portfolio that are for sale.

19. 2015-09-25
    listed $22,000 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This 2Bed/1Bath is rented for $550 per month with a Section 8 tenant who recently renewed their lease. Interior photos were taken before tenant moved in. Listing agent has an ownership stake in the property. Allow 48 hours for showings. See Documents tab for a list of other properties in this portfolio that are for sale.

20. 2013-03-29
    soldstatus $13,000 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Just reduced. Nice investment property with little work needed. Many updates. Offered for sale AS IS without warranties of any kind. Motivated seller.

21. 2013-01-31
    listed $15,000 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Just reduced. Nice investment property with little work needed. Many updates. Offered for sale AS IS without warranties of any kind. Motivated seller.

22. 2013-01-23
    historical
23. 2012-01-23
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $3,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$896
• After-tax cash flow: $3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+383.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $72,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $451,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,250 Public Records
• 2015-10-16 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2015-09-30 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2015-09-25 Listed $22,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-03-29 Sold (MLS) $13,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-01-31 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-01-23 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-01-23 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $542 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.