1854 Suavez Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1997 10,715 sqft lot Est $191k · at est. $74/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spanish Cove double wide on quiet street! Three bedrooms/2Baths. Large Kitchen with a breakfast area. Large living & dining room. Master Bath has two sinks, garden tub & Stand alone shower. Separate laundry room. Front & back decks. Fenced back yard with a metal shed. Street runs into a cul de sac. Very shaded & backs on a green scape. Spanish Cove amenities include 2 clubhouses, two clubhouses, tennis courts, fishing pier and 24 hr security.

Key facts

• Barn doors
• Opened floor plan
• Completely renovated

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• OPENED FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM
• BARN DOORS
• TILED SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features and amenities provided through the association
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee; Association management and grounds maintenance included; Trash service and security included; Clubhouse, outdoor pool, fitness center, conference/meeting rooms, BBQ area, tennis courts, fishing, landscaping; Transfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Security: Association-provided security
• Utilities: Perdido Bay Water; Baldwin County sewer service; Riviera Utilities (power)
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story; Resale condition; Handicap accessible
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding, steel frame and wood frame; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Community/association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 16 x 14); Second bedroom (approx. 11 x 10); Third bedroom (approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Central electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; No fireplace; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level / common area; Utility room (approx. 8 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $200k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,296
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1860 Suavez Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+5%)	7mo	$215,000	$131	82
1696 Santa Cruz Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$192,000	$122	79
1886 Suavez Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+7%)	15mo	$228,000	$136	71
1836 Spanish Cove Dr N	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	15mo	$160,000	$95	68
1649 Del Rey Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+9%)	4mo	$250,000	$146	63
1692 Santa Cruz Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$160,000	$119	62
1691 Santa Cruz Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (-6%)	24mo	$170,000	$115	58
1520 Valencia Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-9%)	7mo	$78,000	$55	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,216
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,670
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $421	+0% $365	+5% $308	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $284	+0% $365	+5% $445	+10% $526
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $416	base $365	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12411 County Road 91 Lillian, AL	4.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	14d	1	1.25mi
32042 Terranova Loop Lillian, AL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,300	$1.30	21d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-01-07
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2025-12-29
   price $199,900
4. 2025-11-07
   price $209,900
5. 2025-08-29
   price $219,900
6. 2025-08-02
   status Active
7. 2025-07-23
   status Pending
8. 2025-06-26
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-06-20
   listed $227,500 Active
10. 2025-06-11
    historical
11. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $94,000 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Spanish Cove double wide on quiet street! Three bedrooms/2Baths. Large Kitchen with a breakfast area. Large living & dining room. Master Bath has two sinks, garden tub & Stand alone shower. Separate laundry room. Front & back decks. Fenced back yard with a metal shed. Street runs into a cul de sac. Very shaded & backs on a green scape. Spanish Cove amenities include 2 clubhouses, two clubhouses, tennis courts, fishing pier and 24 hr security.

12. 2020-06-16
    listed $98,000 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Spanish Cove double wide on quiet street! Three bedrooms/2Baths. Large Kitchen with a breakfast area. Large living & dining room. Master Bath has two sinks, garden tub & Stand alone shower. Separate laundry room. Front & back decks. Fenced back yard with a metal shed. Street runs into a cul de sac. Very shaded & backs on a green scape. Spanish Cove amenities include 2 clubhouses, two clubhouses, tennis courts, fishing pier and 24 hr security.

13. 2017-02-23
    soldstatus $60,000
14. 2017-02-22
    soldstatus $60,000
15. 2017-01-03
    listed $65,000
16. 2002-01-07
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+233.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-01-07 Listed $199,900 BCAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $199,900 BCAR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $209,900 BCAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $219,900 BCAR
• 2025-08-02 Relisted — BCAR
• 2025-07-23 Pending — BCAR
• 2025-06-26 Contingent — BCAR
• 2025-06-20 Listed $227,500 BCAR
• 2025-06-11 Coming Soon — BCAR
• 2020-07-15 Sold (MLS) $94,000 BCAR
• 2020-06-16 Listed $98,000 BCAR
• 2017-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BCAR
• 2017-01-03 Listed $65,000 BCAR
• 2002-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · +33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.