357 Cayuse Cir · Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD 20657

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1971 $174/sqft · 49% below area Est $305k · 49% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for an investor or handy home owner to buy below market value. House needs work, but opportunities are endless. Seller has never occupied the property, accuracy in this listing is not guaranteed. Sold strictly AS IS. Buyer and buyer agent must do their own due diligence before submitting an offer. Cash or hard money only. Buyer pays all transfer and record. Seller strongly prefers New World Title.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.7% in Chesapeake Ranch Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.83%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,734
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -49.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12646 High Sierra Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-3%)	1mo	$279,000	$323	73
12924 Rousby Hall Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	960 (+8%)	4mo	$260,000	$271	67
309 Cayuse Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	960 (+8%)	12mo	$330,000	$344	67
12990 Barreda Blvd	0.60mi	3/1.0	864 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$318	66
425 Rodeo Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	960 (+8%)	5mo	$313,000	$326	65
12788 Rio Grande Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	960 (+8%)	9mo	$317,500	$331	63
344 Oak Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (-6%)	11mo	$241,500	$289	61
12995 Rousby Hall Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	960 (+8%)	1mo	$304,000	$317	58
419 Dogwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+14%)	15mo	$295,000	$293	47
338 Lessin Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	960 (+8%)	18mo	$279,000	$291	46
213 Leason Cove Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	15mo	$540,000	$540	38
13495 Joy Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	9mo	$250,000	$248	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $22,918
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $81,956
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20657

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,225/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12904 Huron Dr Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,950	$1.89	1d	1	0.40mi
12627 Hilltop Rd Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,400	$2.17	16d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $154,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $169,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investor or handy home owner to buy below market value. House needs work, but opportunities are endless. Seller has never occupied the property, accuracy in this listing is not guaranteed. Sold strictly AS IS. Buyer and buyer agent must do their own due diligence before submitting an offer. Cash or hard money only. Buyer pays all transfer and record. Seller strongly prefers New World Title.

15. 2025-02-19
    status Pending
16. 2025-02-11
    historical
17. 2025-02-11
    historical
18. 2025-02-06
    listed $129,900 Active
19. 2006-11-27
    soldstatus $195,000
20. 2006-11-27
    soldstatus $195,000
21. 2006-11-17
    soldstatus $195,000
22. 2006-10-20
    historical
23. 2006-09-19
    listed $199,900
24. 2003-09-18
    soldstatus $139,000
25. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $139,000
26. 2003-07-14
    historical
27. 2003-07-11
    listed $138,900
28. 1995-08-29
    soldstatus $67,000
29. 1994-03-25
    soldstatus $53,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,225 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,225 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,225
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $7,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,684
• After-tax cash flow: $7,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chesapeake Ranch Estates

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #11959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
• County: Calvert County · 33,451 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,699
• Household income: $115,748
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 274.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+214.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-17 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MRIS
• 2006-10-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-09-19 Listed $199,900 MRIS
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MRIS
• 2003-07-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-07-11 Listed $138,900 MRIS
• 1995-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $53,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,225 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.