512 S Mesquite St · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$339,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1995 7,405 sqft lot $180/sqft · 97% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

First time buyer opportunity or fantastic investment in Fredericksburg, TX. Just minutes from downtown and close to schools, shopping, and dining. This versatile home features a bonus room ideal for a home office, playroom or additional living space. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-great for pets, entertaining, or relaxing evenings. A beautiful mature tree in the front adds character and shade. This home is a fantastic opportunity you won't want to miss! Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the State of Texas.

Key facts

• Mature tree
• Bonus room
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 966 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $339k implies a 1191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,676 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $11,257,538
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -96.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Bluebonnet St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-13%)	4mo	$355,000	$216	60
194 Juanita Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+1%)	6mo	$309,999	$163	59
181 Juanita Way	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,885 (-0%)	1mo	$320,999	$170	54
510 Mueller St #16	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-7%)	1mo	$420,000	$239	52
135 Alameda Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,885 (-0%)	7mo	$286,999	$152	49
198 Juanita Way	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,024 (+7%)	5mo	$323,999	$160	40
206 Juanita Way	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,024 (+7%)	5mo	$312,999	$155	40
196 Juanita Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-14%)	6mo	$301,999	$185	37
235 Juanita Way	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,024 (+7%)	8mo	$360,749	$178	37
195 Juanita Way	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$284,999	$171	37
202 Juanita Way	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,049 (+8%)	6mo	$321,999	$157	36
139 Alameda Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-12%)	7mo	$275,999	$166	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-74,059
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-89,104
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 966
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,435/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,897

Max offer price $285,938

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	43d	1	0.05mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	43d	1	0.07mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	4d	1	0.14mi
409 S Pear St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	4d	1	0.15mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.22mi
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	2d	1	0.67mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	11d	1	0.68mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	23d	1	0.83mi
243 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,300	$1.21	21d	1	0.84mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	23d	1	0.88mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	1d	11	0.91mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	43d	1	1.39mi
422 S Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0	1732	$2,250	$1.30	20d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $339,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    First time buyer opportunity or fantastic investment in Fredericksburg, TX. Just minutes from downtown and close to schools, shopping, and dining. This versatile home features a bonus room ideal for a home office, playroom or additional living space. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-great for pets, entertaining, or relaxing evenings. A beautiful mature tree in the front adds character and shade. This home is a fantastic opportunity you won't want to miss! Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the State of Texas.

16. 2026-04-27
    price $349,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    First time buyer opportunity or fantastic investment in Fredericksburg, TX. Just minutes from downtown and close to schools, shopping, and dining. This versatile home features a bonus room ideal for a home office, playroom or additional living space. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-great for pets, entertaining, or relaxing evenings. A beautiful mature tree in the front adds character and shade. This home is a fantastic opportunity you won't want to miss! Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the State of Texas.

17. 2026-04-14
    price $364,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    First time buyer opportunity or fantastic investment in Fredericksburg, TX. Just minutes from downtown and close to schools, shopping, and dining. This versatile home features a bonus room ideal for a home office, playroom or additional living space. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-great for pets, entertaining, or relaxing evenings. A beautiful mature tree in the front adds character and shade. This home is a fantastic opportunity you won't want to miss! Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the State of Texas.

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $376,000 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    First time buyer opportunity or fantastic investment in Fredericksburg, TX. Just minutes from downtown and close to schools, shopping, and dining. This versatile home features a bonus room ideal for a home office, playroom or additional living space. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-great for pets, entertaining, or relaxing evenings. A beautiful mature tree in the front adds character and shade. This home is a fantastic opportunity you won't want to miss! Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the State of Texas.

19. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus
20. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus
21. 2014-11-24
    soldstatus 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Brick home with roomy, open floor plan. Great kitchen with Granite counter tops and lots of storage. The great room is open and bright with tile floors. Master has ensuite bath. A beautiful back yard complete with deck and rose garden has large trees to shade the huge yard. The additional family room make this a great buy.

22. 2014-11-24
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Brick home with roomy, open floor plan. Great kitchen with Granite counter tops and lots of storage. The great room is open and bright with tile floors. Master has ensuite bath. A beautiful back yard complete with deck and rose garden has large trees to shade the huge yard. The additional family room make this a great buy.

23. 2014-07-16
    listed $199,000 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Brick home with roomy, open floor plan. Great kitchen with Granite counter tops and lots of storage. The great room is open and bright with tile floors. Master has ensuite bath. A beautiful back yard complete with deck and rose garden has large trees to shade the huge yard. The additional family room make this a great buy.

24. 2008-07-21
    soldstatus
25. 2006-09-25
    soldstatus
26. 2000-02-15
    soldstatus $26,250
27. 1996-06-18
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,768/yr (+$147/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$4,435
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$9,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+334.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $339,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $349,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $364,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $376,000 CHCMLS
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) — CHCMLS
• 2014-07-16 Listed $199,000 CHCMLS
• 2008-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $26,250 Public Records
• 1996-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,435 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.