3210 Santa Maria Way #49 · Orcutt, CA 93455

$129,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $121k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this updated 1969 Hillcrest double-wide located in the Del Cielo Mobile Home Community. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a bright and inviting interior with abundant natural light throughout. Recently updated, the home features a clean and well-maintained living space that is move-in ready. The kitchen is equipped with a gas range, stainless steel refrigerator, and ample cabinetry for storage. Indoor laundry hookups add everyday convenience. Designed for comfortable living, this home provides a functional layout in an established community. Enjoy affordable space rent of $995 per month.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Gas range
• Built 1969

Tags

• HILLCREST DOUBLE-WIDE
• BRIGHT AND INVITING INTERIOR
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• AMPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Double body type
• Financial info: Land lease: $995 per month
• HOA & community: Located in an urban manufactured home community; Park: Del Cielo MHC; Manager approval required for residency; Pets allowed with number limits

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Del Cielo Manufactured Home Community
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Model: Hillcrest; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Mobile home approximately 20 ft by 40 ft; Total of 1 story; Year built source: Other
• Exterior features: No pool; Zero lot line

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front door entry; Entry level is 1
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.6% in Orcutt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#169 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,153 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.41%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,800
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3210 Santa Maria Way #27	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	8mo	$110,000	$138	94
3210 Santa Maria Way #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	8mo	$159,000	$199	93
3210 Santa Maria Way #21	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	1mo	$159,950	$190	91
3210 Santa Maria Way #66	0.00mi	2/1.5	769 (-4%)	12mo	$140,000	$182	82
3210 Santa Maria Way #19	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	780 (-2%)	7mo	$115,000	$147	81
3210 Santa Maria Way #90	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (+12%)	6mo	$180,000	$201	75
3210 Santa Maria Way #10	0.00mi	2/1.0	859 (+7%)	12mo	$120,000	$140	74
3210 Santa Maria Way #46	0.00mi	2/1.0	880 (+10%)	8mo	$118,500	$135	73
3210 Santa Maria Way #86	0.00mi	2/1.0	860 (+8%)	14mo	$129,900	$151	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,442
• Equity at exit: $19,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $120,021
• Equity at exit: $11,236

Cash invested: $36,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93455

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,949/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,950

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,488
• Closing costs: $3,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3490 Santa Maria Way Unit 103F Santa Maria, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	14d	1	0.42mi
3235 Orcutt Rd Orcutt, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1202	$2,695	$2.24	14d	5	0.58mi
3519 Mercury Dr Bldg 5 Santa Maria, CA	1.0	1.0	619	$2,395	$3.87	14d	1	0.73mi
504 Playa Blanca Ct Santa Maria, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	14d	1	0.96mi
958 Terrace Ave Santa Maria, CA	1.0	1.0	555	$1,360	$2.45	14d	1	0.98mi
2460 Rubel Way Santa Maria, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1230	$2,992	$2.43	14d	11	1.07mi
4036 Cedarhurst Dr Orcutt, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,648	$3.39	14d	6	1.24mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $129,950 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,950 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,950 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,950 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,950 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,950 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,950 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,950 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,950 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,950 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,950 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,950 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,950 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,950 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,950 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,950 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,950 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    price $134,950
19. 2026-04-16
    status Active
20. 2026-04-09
    status Pending Sale
21. 2026-04-02
    listed $139,950 Active
22. 2026-04-02
    historical
23. 2026-03-31
    listed $119,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,279
• − Property taxes: −$1,949
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$3,780
• Taxable income: $11,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,760
• After-tax cash flow: $10,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orcutt Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628710
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 45.96/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #414 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Orcutt

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #5508

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orcutt, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,611
• Household income: $110,661
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 765.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 24% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -729.78%
• Current HPI: 314.6499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.23%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $134,950 CRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $139,950 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $119,950 CRMLS