1218 Kirsten St · La Marque, TX 77568

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1965 10,824 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate home in quiet, established neighborhood (cul-de-sac). Recently removed carpet to expose beautiful hardwoods! Professionally installed, large DBL carport (26x17), darling screened in porch, huge den, dbl garage with built ins in garage and workshop, lots of closets, huge walk in in master w/ 1/2 bath. Refrigerator & stove remain! Very well maintained home with beautiful mature trees and landscaping. PRICE REDUCED BY $5,000!!! Owner says SELL!

Key facts

• Custom built pantry
• Workshop lights
• Built-in cabinets

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT PANTRY
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP LIGHTS
• BUILT-IN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure provided
• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1965; Composition/shingle/wood roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a cul-de-sac within a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 15); Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (23 x 10; 13 x 10; 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating
• Interior features: Den on the first floor (21 x 19); Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.6% in La Marque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hayley El (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #4,293 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 92% FRL); La Marque H S (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,342 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 647 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 66% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Texas City ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.83%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2508 N Houston Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-0%)	2mo	$115,000	$62	83
2405 Stonewall St	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,812 (-3%)	2mo	$249,900	$138	73
2424 Oaklawn Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,744 (-7%)	3mo	$235,000	$135	65
1303 Red Bud Ln Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-4%)	4mo	$170,000	$95	63
1401 Austin St	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,054 (+10%)	4mo	$249,900	$122	63
1518 Oleander Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,940 (+3%)	2mo	$299,000	$154	61
2805 N Houston Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (-2%)	4mo	$130,000	$71	60
1112 Cora St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-13%)	6mo	$175,000	$107	59
2012 Bellview	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,812 (-3%)	1mo	$254,900	$141	56
121 Lake Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (+2%)	4mo	$68,000	$36	55
2201 Meadow Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-12%)	2mo	$248,000	$149	54
1825 Thompson St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,676 (-11%)	4mo	$229,900	$137	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,061
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $80,284
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,861/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1230 Kirsten St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,660	$0.97	3d	1	0.06mi
1401 Austin St La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	1542	$2,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.33mi
1006 E Camp Cir La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.60mi
1029 Sycamore St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,695	$0.88	15d	1	0.68mi
203 Beatrice St La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,395	$1.07	24d	1	0.80mi
113 N Pecan Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	43d	1	1.44mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	1d	12	1.46mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $125,000 Pending 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $125,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    price $159,000
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $180,000 Active
18. 2025-06-12
    historical $1,850
19. 2025-06-11
    historical
20. 2025-06-02
    price $1,850
21. 2025-06-01
    price $209,999
22. 2025-05-13
    listed $2,000
23. 2025-05-13
    price $219,999
24. 2025-04-23
    price $239,999
25. 2025-04-03
    price $247,137
26. 2025-04-03
    status Active
27. 2024-07-22
    historical $2,150
28. 2024-07-22
    historical
29. 2024-06-18
    price $270,000
30. 2024-06-11
    price $275,500
31. 2024-06-04
    price $2,150
32. 2024-05-21
    price $2,400
33. 2024-05-09
    listed $2,600
34. 2024-05-02
    listed $285,152 Active
35. 2015-09-22
    soldstatus
36. 2015-09-18
    soldstatus Sold 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Immaculate home in quiet, established neighborhood (cul-de-sac). Recently removed carpet to expose beautiful hardwoods! Professionally installed, large DBL carport (26x17), darling screened in porch, huge den, dbl garage with built ins in garage and workshop, lots of closets, huge walk in in master w/ 1/2 bath. Refrigerator & stove remain! Very well maintained home with beautiful mature trees and landscaping. PRICE REDUCED BY $5,000!!! Owner says SELL!

37. 2015-08-18
    status Pending 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Immaculate home in quiet, established neighborhood (cul-de-sac). Recently removed carpet to expose beautiful hardwoods! Professionally installed, large DBL carport (26x17), darling screened in porch, huge den, dbl garage with built ins in garage and workshop, lots of closets, huge walk in in master w/ 1/2 bath. Refrigerator & stove remain! Very well maintained home with beautiful mature trees and landscaping. PRICE REDUCED BY $5,000!!! Owner says SELL!

38. 2015-06-26
    listed $114,900 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Immaculate home in quiet, established neighborhood (cul-de-sac). Recently removed carpet to expose beautiful hardwoods! Professionally installed, large DBL carport (26x17), darling screened in porch, huge den, dbl garage with built ins in garage and workshop, lots of closets, huge walk in in master w/ 1/2 bath. Refrigerator & stove remain! Very well maintained home with beautiful mature trees and landscaping. PRICE REDUCED BY $5,000!!! Owner says SELL!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,861 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,861 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,861
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $6,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $209,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $219,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $239,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $247,137 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-07-22 Rental Removed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2024-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $275,500 HARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listed $285,152 HARMLS
• 2015-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $114,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,861 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.