834 Coffee Mill Creek Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2015 7,666 sqft lot Est $243k · 10% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT 3/2/2 HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS. HOME HAS VIBRATE AND NEUTRAL COLORS. TILE FLOORING THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BEDROOMS WHICH HAVE RECENT CARPET AND PADDING, CEILING FANS IN ALL THE BEDROOMS AND LIVING AREA, UPGRADED STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, GARDEN TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, WITH DOUBLE SINKS AND COVERED PATIO. CALL FOR YOUR PRIVATE VIEWING.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• 7,666 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by PRINCIPAL MANAGMENT; HOA fee $462 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2015; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 12); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,769 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,110
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1327 Athea Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+1%)	12mo	$245,000	$161	79
1307 Pease River Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+0%)	16mo	$255,000	$169	79
1126 Desert Oasis Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+8%)	0mo	$220,000	$135	75
1130 Desert Springs Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-8%)	6mo	$195,000	$141	70
1110 Desert Springs Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	24mo	$249,000	$160	62
1210 Athea Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,709 (+13%)	7mo	$259,900	$152	58
514 Enchanted Springs Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-10%)	22mo	$232,000	$171	51
2004 Spring Acres Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (+12%)	14mo	$407,000	$242	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-47,149
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-71,311
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,622/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,219

Max offer price $204,769

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1621 Perennial Ln Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.5	1792	$1,861	$1.04	1d	1	0.25mi
1804 Spring Acres Dr Rosenberg, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1670	$2,320	$1.39	1d	1	0.46mi
27315 Southwest Fwy Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,570	$1.33	43d	1	1.03mi
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	43d	1	1.27mi
2023 Heather Ridge Way Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,300	$1.17	5d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,622 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,622 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,622
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-02-07 Listed $169,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,622 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.