39 Blackhawk Ave · Harlingen, TX 78552

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1997 7,000 sqft lot $109/sqft · 52% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable gated community in Harlingen! Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room inside and out. Featuring multiple built-ins for added storage and style, a handy storage building, mature shade trees, and a double carport that fits two vehicles with ease. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and a great location close to everything Harlingen has to offer.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Two spacious lots
• Multiple built-ins

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MULTIPLE BUILT-INS
• STORAGE BUILDING
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• TWO SPACIOUS LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.16%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 58.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Chippewa Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,098 (+1%)	20mo	$169,900	$155	74
4346 Casamigos St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+14%)	2mo	$231,900	$187	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,961
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-166
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 S Palm Court Dr Harlingen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,198	$1.37	14d	18	0.87mi
175 Heather Dr Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	14d	1	1.10mi
101 S Taos Blvd Unit A Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.5	908	$1,275	$1.40	44d	1	1.22mi
6020 Masters Blvd Unit 2 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,075	$1.07	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $119,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable gated community in Harlingen! Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room inside and out. Featuring multiple built-ins for added storage and style, a handy storage building, mature shade trees, and a double carport that fits two vehicles with ease. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and a great location close to everything Harlingen has to offer.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $119,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable gated community in Harlingen! Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room inside and out. Featuring multiple built-ins for added storage and style, a handy storage building, mature shade trees, and a double carport that fits two vehicles with ease. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and a great location close to everything Harlingen has to offer.

17. 2026-04-14
    listed $130,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable gated community in Harlingen! Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room inside and out. Featuring multiple built-ins for added storage and style, a handy storage building, mature shade trees, and a double carport that fits two vehicles with ease. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and a great location close to everything Harlingen has to offer.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $130,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable gated community in Harlingen! Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room inside and out. Featuring multiple built-ins for added storage and style, a handy storage building, mature shade trees, and a double carport that fits two vehicles with ease. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and a great location close to everything Harlingen has to offer.

19. 2019-03-20
    soldstatus
20. 2019-03-07
    soldstatus
21. 2018-01-23
    listed $37,000
22. 1997-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$66/mo · 57.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$289
• After-tax cash flow: $2,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+221.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $130,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-07 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2018-01-23 Listed $37,000 RGVMLS
• 1997-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.