9840 Crofton Ln · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1983 6,375 sqft lot Est $190k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take pride in residing in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in The Lakes community. A covered front porch invites you inside, leading into the comfortable main living area. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the kitchen that features plenty of counter space to prepare meals and a bright and open eat-in area. Retreat to the primary bedroom to find ample closet space and an en suite bathroom. Venture to the backyard to the screened-in patio overlooking the lush landscape, the perfect place to unwind after a long day. This property is conveniently located minutes from numerous beaches, shopping, dining, and US-19 for an easy commute.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Fully fenced
• Convenient location

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• RECENT UPDATES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,198 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9840 Crofton Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$255	100
8422 Paxton Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	7mo	$188,000	$253	92
8513 Newton Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	744 (0%)	17mo	$225,000	$302	76
9829 Crofton Ln	0.03mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	3mo	$215,000	$256	75
7804 Fox Hollow Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	2mo	$222,500	$299	70
8434 Luray Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	3mo	$168,000	$199	66
9640 Mark Twain Ln	0.54mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	13mo	$200,000	$269	64
9744 Rainelle Ln	0.16mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	8mo	$200,000	$236	63
9726 Rainbow Ln	0.48mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	19mo	$220,000	$296	62
9740 Gray Fox Ln	0.43mi	2/1.5	720 (-3%)	19mo	$191,000	$265	57
8525 Fox Hollow Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	15mo	$212,000	$251	56
8012 Durham Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	14mo	$178,000	$212	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,936
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,740
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8422 Paxton Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,800	$2.42	24d	1	0.04mi
9615 Gray Fox Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	3d	1	0.52mi
8940 Miguel Pl Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,290	$1.79	2d	10	0.94mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   status Active
3. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-09
   listed $190,000 Active
5. 2021-12-08
   soldstatus $162,000
6. 2021-12-02
   soldstatus $164,100 Closed 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Take pride in residing in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in The Lakes community. A covered front porch invites you inside, leading into the comfortable main living area. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the kitchen that features plenty of counter space to prepare meals and a bright and open eat-in area. Retreat to the primary bedroom to find ample closet space and an en suite bathroom. Venture to the backyard to the screened-in patio overlooking the lush landscape, the perfect place to unwind after a long day. This property is conveniently located minutes from numerous beaches, shopping, dining, and US-19 for an easy commute.

7. 2021-11-03
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Take pride in residing in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in The Lakes community. A covered front porch invites you inside, leading into the comfortable main living area. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the kitchen that features plenty of counter space to prepare meals and a bright and open eat-in area. Retreat to the primary bedroom to find ample closet space and an en suite bathroom. Venture to the backyard to the screened-in patio overlooking the lush landscape, the perfect place to unwind after a long day. This property is conveniently located minutes from numerous beaches, shopping, dining, and US-19 for an easy commute.

8. 2021-10-29
   price $164,100 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Take pride in residing in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in The Lakes community. A covered front porch invites you inside, leading into the comfortable main living area. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the kitchen that features plenty of counter space to prepare meals and a bright and open eat-in area. Retreat to the primary bedroom to find ample closet space and an en suite bathroom. Venture to the backyard to the screened-in patio overlooking the lush landscape, the perfect place to unwind after a long day. This property is conveniently located minutes from numerous beaches, shopping, dining, and US-19 for an easy commute.

9. 2021-10-17
   listed $165,900 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Take pride in residing in this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in The Lakes community. A covered front porch invites you inside, leading into the comfortable main living area. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in the kitchen that features plenty of counter space to prepare meals and a bright and open eat-in area. Retreat to the primary bedroom to find ample closet space and an en suite bathroom. Venture to the backyard to the screened-in patio overlooking the lush landscape, the perfect place to unwind after a long day. This property is conveniently located minutes from numerous beaches, shopping, dining, and US-19 for an easy commute.

10. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $140,800
11. 2021-07-01
    soldstatus $140,800
12. 2021-07-01
    listed $140,800
13. 2011-08-06
    historical
14. 2006-08-17
    listed $105,000
15. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $95,000
16. 2001-02-14
    soldstatus $52,000
17. 1996-11-20
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $2,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $164,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-29 Price Changed $164,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-17 Listed $165,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $140,800 Public Records
• 2021-07-01 Listed $140,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-01 Sold (MLS) $140,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-17 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.