42 Back Shandelee Rd · Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $152/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity meets location in the heart of the Livingston Manor and the scenic Catskill Mountains. Tucked away off the road on 1 private acre with peaceful wooded views, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home, with an additional home office space offers the perfect setting for those looking to create their own country retreat. 2 bedrooms upstairs and a potential additional bedroom in basement. Set back for added privacy, the property features an attached 2 car garage and full basement. This fixer-upper is ideal for buyers with vision who understand the value of a prime location. Just minutes from the charming downtown of Livingston Manor, enjoy easy access to beloved local shops, restaurants, cafes, a

Key facts

• Private acre
• Full basement
• Prime location

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRE
• ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPS
• CLOSE TO WORLD-CLASS FISHING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private parking; Parking lot; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-family residence; Property condition: fixer
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First floor bedroom; First floor full bath; Kitchen island; Pantry; Storage; Home office; Full basement with storage space and walk-out access; Attic: none
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Manor Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 227 students, 40% FRL); Livingston Manor High School (math 62% / reading 44%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 179 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $148k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,900
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -51.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Shandelee Lake Rd	0.70mi	2/2.5	1,056 (-8%)	23mo	$295,000	$279	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $105,442
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $302,742
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,503/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $207	+0% $158	+5% $108	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $86	+0% $158	+5% $230	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $202	base $158	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-04-28
    listed $189,900 Active 1200-char remark
11. 2005-12-16
    soldstatus $148,500
12. 2004-11-29
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,503 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,503 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,503
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Livingston Manor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #25609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+173.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $148,500 Public Records
• 2004-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,503 · -11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.