152 Boulder Rd · Lake, PA 18436

$285,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,699 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1994 0.40 ac lot $77/sqft · 44% below area Est $404k · 30% under $180/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in The Hideout, this 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers a spacious layout with a fully finished lower level set up for private guest quarters. The main level features an open living area with high ceilings, natural light, and a seamless connection to the kitchen and dining space, along with a primary suite with a private bath and walk-in closet. The lower level includes its own living area, second kitchen, bedrooms, full bath, and additional rooms for office or recreation, providing ample separation and privacy. Set on a flat lot with open backyard views and a large yard for outdoor use. Located within a gated community with lakes, beaches, pools, golf, fitness center, ski area and year-round amenities.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Primary suite
• Open living area

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• PRIVATE GUEST QUARTERS
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• SEAMLESS CONNECTION TO KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $261,488 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,458
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -29.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Rockway Rd	0.17mi	5/4.5	3,558 (-4%)	8mo	$602,500	$169	73
4 Slate Ct	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	4,080 (+10%)	19mo	$430,000	$105	48
2596 Boulder Rd	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,965 (+7%)	18mo	$395,000	$100	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $148,371
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $442,774
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,591/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,754

Max offer price $265,546

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $299,900 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Located in The Hideout, this 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers a spacious layout with a fully finished lower level set up for private guest quarters. The main level features an open living area with high ceilings, natural light, and a seamless connection to the kitchen and dining space, along with a primary suite with a private bath and walk-in closet. The lower level includes its own living area, second kitchen, bedrooms, full bath, and additional rooms for office or recreation, providing ample separation and privacy. Set on a flat lot with open backyard views and a large yard for outdoor use. Located within a gated community with lakes, beaches, pools, golf, fitness center, ski area and year-round amenities.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $309,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Located in The Hideout, this 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers a spacious layout with a fully finished lower level set up for private guest quarters. The main level features an open living area with high ceilings, natural light, and a seamless connection to the kitchen and dining space, along with a primary suite with a private bath and walk-in closet. The lower level includes its own living area, second kitchen, bedrooms, full bath, and additional rooms for office or recreation, providing ample separation and privacy. Set on a flat lot with open backyard views and a large yard for outdoor use. Located within a gated community with lakes, beaches, pools, golf, fitness center, ski area and year-round amenities.

18. 2025-08-19
    listed $325,000 Active
19. 2024-04-12
    soldstatus $264,000
20. 2024-04-11
    soldstatus $264,000 Closed
21. 2024-03-19
    status Pending
22. 2024-03-08
    price $315,000
23. 2023-10-15
    listed $325,000 Active
24. 2021-02-10
    soldstatus $174,000
25. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $174,000
26. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus
27. 2020-03-12
    listed $159,000
28. 2020-03-12
    listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,591 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,591 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,591
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+88.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $299,900 PWMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $309,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $325,000 PWMLS
• 2024-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $264,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-11 Sold (MLS) $264,000 PWMLS
• 2024-03-19 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $315,000 PWMLS
• 2023-10-15 Listed $325,000 PWMLS
• 2021-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-12 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2020-08-12 Sold (MLS) $174,000 PWMLS
• 2020-03-12 Listed $159,000 PWMLS
• 2020-03-12 Listed $159,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,591 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.