23115 Lestergate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1976 6,952 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fully remodeled
• Modern upgrades

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• MODERN UPGRADES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,722
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -3.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-0%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	77
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-11%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	70
3902 Adonis Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-1%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	69
23207 Naples Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+5%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	68
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-9%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	63
4555 Algernon Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-8%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	56
23303 Whittaker Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-8%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	54
4211 Hirschfield Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (+14%)	8mo	$199,000	$118	50
4214 Chestergate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+11%)	13mo	$199,990	$122	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,843
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,939
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,363/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $296	+0% $239	+5% $183	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $147	+0% $239	+5% $332	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $290	base $239	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Pending 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Pending 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Pending 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Pending 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Pending 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Pending 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Pending 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

15. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

16. 2026-03-23
    status Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

17. 2026-03-12
    status Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

18. 2026-03-04
    status Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

19. 2026-02-23
    status Pending 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

20. 2026-02-07
    listed $199,900 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Beautifully fully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with modern upgrades throughout. This move-in-ready residence features a bright open-concept layout, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a stunning modern kitchen with quartz countertops and generous workspace—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements include a repaired foundation with transferable warranty, brand-new roof, updated electrical, new plumbing, and energy-efficient windows. Enjoy relaxing on the covered porch with built-in lighting and ceiling fan. A spacious two-car garage and flexible floor plan complete this exceptional home.

21. 2026-01-28
    historical
22. 2025-06-24
    price $235,000
23. 2025-06-05
    price $240,000
24. 2025-05-11
    price $245,000
25. 2025-04-10
    price $249,000
26. 2025-03-25
    price $255,000
27. 2025-01-27
    listed $265,000 Active
28. 2024-07-17
    soldstatus
29. 2024-07-16
    soldstatus
30. 2024-07-11
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2024-06-01
    status Pending
32. 2024-05-29
    status Option Pending
33. 2024-05-24
    price $185,000
34. 2024-05-21
    listed $175,000 Active
35. 2024-05-21
    historical
36. 2024-05-14
    price $185,000
37. 2024-05-07
    price $195,000
38. 2024-04-11
    price $205,000
39. 2024-03-23
    listed $215,000 Active
40. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus
41. 2016-01-26
    soldstatus Sold
42. 2016-01-25
    status Pending
43. 2016-01-17
    status Option Pending
44. 2016-01-07
    listed $115,000 Active
45. 2001-12-20
    soldstatus
46. 2001-09-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,363 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,363 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,363
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+73.8% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2016-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-07 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,363 · +24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.