1018 Coffman Rd · Edinburg, VA 22824

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1998 1.40 ac lot $321/sqft · at area comps Est $645k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1018 Coffman Road offers a rare opportunity to enjoy over 1.3 acres with beautiful mountain views just outside of Edinburg. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bath rancher features easy one-level living with added versatility in the partially finished basement—perfect for a rec room, media space, home office, or hobby area. The unfinished portion provides plenty of storage and room for future expansion. Many updates have been completed over the past few years, adding to the home’s overall appeal and functionality. A large front porch provides the perfect spot to take in the mountain views, while the rear deck is ideal for grilling and entertaining. A spacious 2-car attached garage adds everyday convenience, and the lot offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes to Interstate 81 and U. S. Route 11, making commuting a breeze, while still appreciating the feel of country living just outside of town.

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (63.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (69.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (69.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#294 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $449k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,153 (69.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.50%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 27.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $645,144
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -30.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $140,870
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $495,731
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22824

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 27.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-1,624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,417

Max offer price $162,095

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,370	-5% $-1,497	+0% $-1,624	+5% $-1,751	+10% $-1,878
Rent	-10% $-1,732	-5% $-1,678	+0% $-1,624	+5% $-1,570	+10% $-1,517
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,398	-0.5pp $-1,510	base $-1,624	+0.5pp $-1,740	+1.0pp $-1,859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $449,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    1018 Coffman Road offers a rare opportunity to enjoy over 1.3 acres with beautiful mountain views just outside of Edinburg. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bath rancher features easy one-level living with added versatility in the partially finished basement—perfect for a rec room, media space, home office, or hobby area. The unfinished portion provides plenty of storage and room for future expansion. Many updates have been completed over the past few years, adding to the home’s overall appeal and functionality. A large front porch provides the perfect spot to take in the mountain views, while the rear deck is ideal for grilling and entertaining. A spacious 2-car attached garage adds everyday convenience, and the lot offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes to Interstate 81 and U. S. Route 11, making commuting a breeze, while still appreciating the feel of country living just outside of town.

16. 2026-04-29
    listed $460,000 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    1018 Coffman Road offers a rare opportunity to enjoy over 1.3 acres with beautiful mountain views just outside of Edinburg. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bath rancher features easy one-level living with added versatility in the partially finished basement—perfect for a rec room, media space, home office, or hobby area. The unfinished portion provides plenty of storage and room for future expansion. Many updates have been completed over the past few years, adding to the home’s overall appeal and functionality. A large front porch provides the perfect spot to take in the mountain views, while the rear deck is ideal for grilling and entertaining. A spacious 2-car attached garage adds everyday convenience, and the lot offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes to Interstate 81 and U. S. Route 11, making commuting a breeze, while still appreciating the feel of country living just outside of town.

17. 2026-04-17
    historical $460,000 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    1018 Coffman Road offers a rare opportunity to enjoy over 1.3 acres with beautiful mountain views just outside of Edinburg. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bath rancher features easy one-level living with added versatility in the partially finished basement—perfect for a rec room, media space, home office, or hobby area. The unfinished portion provides plenty of storage and room for future expansion. Many updates have been completed over the past few years, adding to the home’s overall appeal and functionality. A large front porch provides the perfect spot to take in the mountain views, while the rear deck is ideal for grilling and entertaining. A spacious 2-car attached garage adds everyday convenience, and the lot offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes to Interstate 81 and U. S. Route 11, making commuting a breeze, while still appreciating the feel of country living just outside of town.

18. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $265,100 Closed 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

19. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $265,100 Sold

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

20. 2018-07-25
    status Pending 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

21. 2018-06-22
    historical Active Under Contract 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

22. 2018-06-22
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

23. 2018-06-18
    listed $265,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

24. 2018-06-18
    listed $265,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Comfortable country living with this wonderful home on 1.4 acres. Main level laundry, great kitchen with lots of cabinets, Master Suite. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the back deck. The nice walk-out basement has a finished family room complete with gas stove and full bath. The remainder of unfinished basement has great storage space. Also a two car garage is attached. Come see.

25. 2002-06-11
    soldstatus $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,682 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,785/yr (+$149/mo · 94.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$28,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Edinburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #10446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,061

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.98%
• Current HPI: 342.2967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+223.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $449,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $460,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $460,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $265,100 MRIS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $265,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-22 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-06-18 Listed $265,000 MRIS
• 2018-06-18 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.