11390 Oak Leaf Cir · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$650,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1990 0.62 ac lot Est $661k · at est. $20/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy breathtaking views of Beaver Lake from this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Lost Bridge Village. Designed for relaxing and entertaining, the home features a huge upper deck plus a lower-level deck, offering plenty of space to take in the lake scenery year-round. Inside, the living area showcases beautiful wood ceilings and a stunning double-sided stone fireplace shared with the primary bedroom, creating warmth and character throughout. The lower-level game room provides the perfect spot for gatherings, pool games or leisure. A 2-car garage adds convenience, while most furnishings are negotiable with an acceptable offer, making this an excellent opportunity for a turnkey lake-area

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Pickleball courts
• Community pool

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• HUGE UPPER DECK
• DOUBLE-SIDED STONE FIREPLACE
• LOWER-LEVEL GAME ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Lost Bridge Village community; Annual association fee of $240; Community amenities include recreation area, tennis courts, lake access, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One covered garage space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Phone available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Residential property; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Cedar construction
• Construction: Built with cedar siding; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Gravel driveway; Views; Wooded lot; Outside city limits; Subdivision setting; Community pool; Access to Beaver Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms including rooms located in the basement and on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Walk-in closets; Metal windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Finished basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $518k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garfield Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 106 students, 68% FRL); Lingle Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 766 students, 56% FRL); Rogers Heritage High School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #138 of 292 statewide, top 48%, 2,080 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $518,400 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $661,248
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21299 Black Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,372 (+3%)	3mo	$675,000	$285	78
21393 Black Oak Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-3%)	13mo	$880,000	$393	70
11435 Oak Leaf Cir	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (-7%)	22mo	$615,000	$287	58
11418 Country Club Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,004 (-13%)	6mo	$495,000	$247	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $262,492
• Equity at exit: $476,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $752,508
• Equity at exit: $929,977

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,636/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,089
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,961

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $360	+0% $176	+5% $-8	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-29	+0% $176	+5% $381	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $342	base $176	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12310 Slate Gap Rd Unit 1221931P Garfield, AR	4.0	2.5	2798	$5,184	$1.85	16d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $650,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $650,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $650,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $650,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $650,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $650,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $650,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,636 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,160 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,524/yr (+$127/mo · 57.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$2,636
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,977
• − Management: −$4,977
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $4,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $650,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,636 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.