206 West Rd · Coats, NC 27501

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1962 1.00 ac lot Est $335k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful investment property. Cinderblock home--4 bedrooms! Unique breezeway, priced to sell!! Seller required addendums on kitchen counter. NC Disclosure not required, survey not available. See agent only remarks.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Brand new kitchen
• Brand new roof

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• FULL ACRE OF LAND
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FULLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• BRAND NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($413/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Coats — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#430 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgee'S Crossroads Elem (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 890 students, 56% FRL); Mcgee'S Crossroads Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 749 students, 47% FRL); West Johnston High (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,469 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 657 active listings in the ZIP; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $250k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,119 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,656
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 West Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$179	99
320 Jared Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-13%)	22mo	$292,000	$249	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,335
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,251
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27501

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 657
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $249,900
3. 2026-03-16
   status Active
4. 2026-03-10
   historical
5. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-10
   price $254,900
7. 2026-02-09
   price $249,900
8. 2026-01-25
   price $259,900
9. 2026-01-07
   price $264,900
10. 2026-01-06
    listed $259,500 Active
11. 2025-04-28
    soldstatus $100,000
12. 2025-03-11
    price $126,900
13. 2025-02-28
    status Active
14. 2025-02-11
    status Pending
15. 2025-02-11
    historical
16. 2025-01-30
    price $137,900
17. 2025-01-24
    price $145,000
18. 2025-01-17
    status Active
19. 2025-01-13
    status Pending
20. 2025-01-02
    price $159,700
21. 2024-12-16
    listed $169,700 Active
22. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $86,000
23. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus $75,000
24. 2006-01-13
    soldstatus $56,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Wonderful investment property. Cinderblock home--4 bedrooms! Unique breezeway, priced to sell!! Seller required addendums on kitchen counter. NC Disclosure not required, survey not available. See agent only remarks.

25. 2005-11-07
    listed $59,900 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Wonderful investment property. Cinderblock home--4 bedrooms! Unique breezeway, priced to sell!! Seller required addendums on kitchen counter. NC Disclosure not required, survey not available. See agent only remarks.

26. 1994-11-01
    soldstatus $45,000
27. 1993-05-01
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,225/yr (+$102/mo · 148.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$954
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Coats

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #15847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 6,549
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,806
• Household income: $73,336
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.84%
• Current HPI: 248.5302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+481.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $249,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $254,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $249,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $259,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $264,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $259,500 TMLS
• 2025-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $126,900 TMLS
• 2025-02-28 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-02-11 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $137,900 TMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $145,000 TMLS
• 2025-01-17 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-01-13 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $159,700 TMLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $169,700 TMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-13 Sold (MLS) $56,000 TMLS
• 2005-11-07 Listed $59,900 TMLS
• 1994-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +36.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.