1121 4th St · Fairbury, NE 68352

$94,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1900 6,970 sqft lot Est $144k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, one bath bungalow on a corner lot. Open living/dining/kitchen, large bath with laundry, lots of storage space! One stall carport, vinyl siding, and many updates at a budget friendly price! Call for a showing!

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Main-floor laundry
• Near local amenities

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• OVERSIZED INSULATED GARAGE
• NEAR LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered garage (1 car); One parking space total
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available on property; Natural gas available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1900; One or more stories (living area above grade)
• Construction: Composition roof; Stone and concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Covered patio; Corner lot; Lot approximately 0.16 acre (50 x 142)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main floor; Additional bedrooms on the main floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement present; No fireplaces; Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($625/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.6% in Fairbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#125 in NE, #4,843 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairbury Public Schools (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #101 of 111 in NE (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (262 students, 56% FRL); Fairbury Jr-Sr High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #176 of 261 statewide, top 68%, 377 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $94k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,300
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
823 8th St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,300 (0%)	1mo	$104,900	$81	81
920 4th St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	2mo	$180,000	$161	58
819 L St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+11%)	9mo	$140,000	$97	58
925 9th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-7%)	14mo	$99,000	$82	58
728 Mcdowell St	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,156 (-11%)	7mo	$152,000	$131	57
711 Mcdowell St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-10%)	17mo	$135,000	$115	55
621 7th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+12%)	8mo	$70,000	$48	49
1116 Hubble St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-2%)	23mo	$190,000	$149	48
1027 F St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-10%)	14mo	$130,000	$111	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-11,922
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,135
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68352

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $79	+0% $52	+5% $25	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $18	+0% $52	+5% $86	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $76	base $52	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 K St Unit STREET-301 Fairbury, NE	2.0	1.5	1088	$850	$0.78	46d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $94,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,000 New 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 441-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $94,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$578/yr (+$48/mo · 55.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable loss: −$950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$228
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbury Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3170440
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,800
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5842
• State rank: #101 of 111 in NE

Livability — Fairbury

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #4843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbury, NE
• Population (ZIP): 4,897

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,961 people
• By 2030: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 6,590 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 6,510 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 7,072 · +1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.7% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.22%
• Current HPI: 229.7519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+1346.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $94,000 GPRMLS
• 2021-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $46,500 GPRMLS
• 2021-07-08 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2021-05-11 Listed $49,500 GPRMLS
• 2018-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 2018-12-28 Sold (MLS) $17,500 GPRMLS
• 2018-12-07 Listed $20,499 GPRMLS
• 2016-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-11 Sold (MLS) $22,500 GPRMLS
• 2016-08-08 Listed $25,000 GPRMLS
• 2015-04-06 Sold (MLS) $21,500 GPRMLS
• 2015-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records
• 2015-02-17 Listed $28,900 GPRMLS
• 2013-02-20 Sold (MLS) $6,500 GPRMLS
• 2012-11-10 Listed $1 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,048 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.