312 S Cynthia St · McAllen, TX 78501

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1982 7,750 sqft lot Est $209k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special – 3 Bed, 2 Bath Home with Great Potential Don’t miss this excellent investment opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in need of repairs—including a roof—but offers strong potential for flippers or investors looking to expand their rental portfolio. Situated on a spacious 62' x 125' lot, this property can be transformed into a great rental or resale. Once renovated, the home could generate rental income of approximately $1,200–$1,500 per month. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this fixer-upper is a great opportunity to build equity and cash flow.

Key facts

• 7,750 sq ft lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 32 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$209,440) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcallen ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #440 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 481 students, 91% FRL); Travis Middle (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 516 students, 96% FRL); Memorial H S (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,080 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 50% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.36%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 S Peking St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	19mo	$199,900	$137	74
504 Date Palm Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,460 (-2%)	4mo	$240,000	$164	59
408 N 6th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-2%)	22mo	$171,500	$117	46
613 Cedar Ave	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,426 (-5%)	12mo	$199,000	$140	45
221 S 8th St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	19mo	$250,000	$156	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,741
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,444
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78501

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $338	+0% $302	+5% $267	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $246	+0% $302	+5% $359	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $334	base $302	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 E Dallas Ave Unit 9 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1045	$800	$0.77	45d	1	0.39mi
4909 Sequoia Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,600	$1.44	45d	1	0.43mi
900 E Dallas Ave #17 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1367	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.46mi
900 E Dallas Ave Unit UT3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,550	$1.13	15d	1	0.46mi
615 W Dallas Ave Apt A-16 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1069	$2,350	$2.20	22d	1	0.54mi
521 N Cynthia St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	24d	1	0.59mi
812 S 6th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$2,000	$1.47	24d	1	0.61mi
601 Kennedy Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	936	$1,350	$1.44	45d	1	0.73mi
901 Galveston Ave Unit C McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	888	$950	$1.07	15d	1	0.77mi
601 N 6th St McAllen, TX	3.0	1.5	1075	$1,350	$1.26	45d	1	0.78mi
915-917 Galveston Ave Unit 917-3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1455	$995	$0.68	45d	1	0.79mi
912 N 3rd St McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.86mi
426 Toronto Ave #28 McAllen, TX	2.0	3.0	1668	$1,750	$1.05	45d	1	1.15mi
1418 Beech Ave #16 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$950	$0.97	24d	1	1.16mi
1317 Jubilee Ave Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,000	$1.08	45d	1	1.18mi
1510 Ithaca Ave #2 McAllen, TX	2.0	1.5	998	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.21mi
1515 W Houston Ave McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	45d	1	1.22mi
1515 S 16th St McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$975	$0.93	45d	1	1.23mi
2100 S 5th St #1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1594	$1,550	$0.97	15d	1	1.25mi
1203 Jasmine Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,500	$0.94	45d	1	1.25mi
608 Uvalde Ave Unit 2 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,950	$1.56	45d	1	1.26mi
1016 Laurel Ave McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	1124	$1,425	$1.27	15d	1	1.27mi
1024 Laurel Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,600	$1.09	45d	1	1.29mi
907 S Diplomat Dr Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	45d	1	1.31mi
904 S Palm Dr Unit 4 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	1004	$875	$0.87	45d	1	1.33mi
500 Wichita Ave Unit 11 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1820	$1,375	$0.76	24d	1	1.36mi
813 S Bicentennial Blvd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1429	$2,000	$1.40	45d	1	1.37mi
419 N 17th St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,500	$0.94	22d	1	1.37mi
439 Quince Cir McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.39mi
1302 S Diplomat Dr Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$850	$0.89	15d	1	1.39mi
1506 S Bilboa St Unit 1 Pharr, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,600	$1.07	45d	1	1.47mi
200 E Upas Ave McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	1212	$950	$0.78	15d	1	1.48mi
512 E Upas Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$900	$0.93	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-07
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 54.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,716
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$412
• After-tax cash flow: $3,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcallen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829670
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,805
• Composite: 33.16/100
• National rank: #5551
• State rank: #440 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,935
• Household income: $48,071
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3043.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 32% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.99%
• Current HPI: 230.0213
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $125,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,481 · -33.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.