2907 Dragonwick Dr · Houston, TX 77045

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1960 8,428 sqft lot Est $195k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home that perfectly blends comfort and style. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the stunning flooring and modern cabinetry that elevate the space. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room—ideal for entertaining or everyday living. Each bedroom is generously sized and offers ample closet space, providing both comfort and functionality. Situated on a spacious lot, the home features a large backyard with plenty of room to relax, play, or create your own outdoor oasis. A double-wide driveway ensures plenty of parking for family and guests. This home is move-in ready and designed for easy living&mdas

Key facts

• Stunning flooring
• Modern cabinetry
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• STUNNING FLOORING
• MODERN CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DOUBLE-WIDE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($282/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11106% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,603 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,210
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Dragonwick Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	1mo	$184,900	$153	99
3210 Wuthering Heights Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,193 (-1%)	5mo	$225,000	$189	78
3218 Wuthering Heights Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,162 (-4%)	3mo	$194,900	$168	75
3238 Knotty Oaks Trl	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,208 (+0%)	4mo	$170,000	$141	75
2810 Tidewater Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (+6%)	2mo	$139,999	$110	75
3135 Trail Lake Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-3%)	6mo	$189,000	$162	72
3306 Trail Lake Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-2%)	8mo	$189,999	$162	67
2718 Summertime Dr	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,294 (+7%)	0mo	$165,000	$128	64
3226 Brookston St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-7%)	4mo	$209,999	$188	64
13434 Woodring Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+3%)	7mo	$215,000	$173	60
2707 Almeda Plaza Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-14%)	4mo	$95,000	$92	55
3335 Angel Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-8%)	5mo	$179,990	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-33,338
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-45,926
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,047/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	7d	1	0.44mi
3119 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	43d	1	0.46mi
3150 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	7d	1	0.47mi
3135 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	22d	1	0.48mi
3234 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.52mi
3239 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,589	$1.21	16d	1	0.55mi
3215 Boynton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.56mi
12806 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,636	$1.79	1d	18	0.85mi
6 W Orem Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,380	$1.21	43d	1	1.03mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,546	$1.36	3d	1	1.07mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,578	$1.39	11d	1	1.07mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,579	$1.39	43d	1	1.07mi
2201 W Orem Dr Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,554	$1.37	7d	1	1.07mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,589	$1.40	11d	1	1.09mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.17mi
14435 Acuna Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,805	$1.21	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical $1,650
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-04
   listed $1,650
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $184,900 Active
6. 2018-01-17
   soldstatus
7. 2006-11-01
   soldstatus
8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,047
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2018-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,047 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.