14992 S Blue Vista Dr #345 · Oregon City, OR 97045

$187,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Condo · 59 Days on market

Built 1991 ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this tastefully updated home in a wonderful park community. Recent improvements include fresh paint, all new flooring, updated fixtures, and more. Natural light fills the interior, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Outside, you’ll find a private fenced backyard and storage shed, while central air conditioning and heat provide year-round comfort. Move-in ready and full of charm. low $889/month space rent includes cable TV and sewer.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• 6,720 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in a manufactured home park; Main level living area approximately 1,782 (public building area reported)
• HOA & community: Association amenities include cable TV, sewer, and water; Lot rent $899 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service / electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (detached); Single-story living (main level layout); Built in 1991
• Construction: Composition roof; T-111 siding; Built in 1991; Public building area reporting
• Exterior features: Deck; Tool shed; T-111 siding; Level lot; Valley view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Built-in range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Country kitchen layout with eat bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet (Main level); Second bedroom (Main level); Third bedroom (Main level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Built-in features in utility room and dining area; Vaulted ceilings in living room and family room; Country-style kitchen with eat bar
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with built-in features (Main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.6% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Redland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 27% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $181,875 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.54%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $24,643
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $78,973
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18807 Nutmeg Ln Oregon City, OR	3.0	2.5	2044	$3,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.79mi
14338 S Maple Lane Ct Oregon City, OR	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,000	$2.01	1d	14	0.86mi
14378 Walnut Grove Way Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,595	$2.56	1d	24	0.95mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: sewercable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-13
   price $187,500
5. 2026-01-10
   listed $199,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,819 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$41/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable income: $8,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $9,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon City

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #271

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,526
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-05 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $187,500 RMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $199,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.