1406 N 10th St · Alpine, TX 79830

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1998 9,583 sqft lot $103/sqft · 13% below area Est $144k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-wide home, nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood that's perfect for a couple or small family. This property truly shines with its landscaping, 2-car parking area, storage outbuildings, providing ample space for tools, seasonal gear, or a backyard workshop. Move-in ready and waiting for you!

Key facts

• Storage outbuildings
• 2-car parking area
• 9,583 sq ft lot

Tags

• STORAGE OUTBUILDINGS
• 2-CAR PARKING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in TX, #2,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.35%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,873
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -13.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,851
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $56,004
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79830

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,546/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 S 11th St Alpine, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$1,800	$2.39	14d	1	0.91mi
2400 U.S. 90 Unit 10 Alpine, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,100	$0.90	14d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $159,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Step into this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-wide home, nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood that's perfect for a couple or small family. This property truly shines with its landscaping, 2-car parking area, storage outbuildings, providing ample space for tools, seasonal gear, or a backyard workshop. Move-in ready and waiting for you!

17. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus
18. 2022-09-29
    soldstatus Closed 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    3 bed/2 bath, 1090 sqft manufactured home offers an open floor plan concept that features a warm and welcoming interior and features a flow-through living area. Whip up gourmet meals in this spacious kitchen, that comprises space-efficient appliances, and laminate countertops. The living area is very large with tons of windows for natural light. The master bedroom is very spacious and has carpet flooring with a walk-in closet. Private, tranquil and peaceful yard.

19. 2022-08-08
    listed $99,000 Active 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    3 bed/2 bath, 1090 sqft manufactured home offers an open floor plan concept that features a warm and welcoming interior and features a flow-through living area. Whip up gourmet meals in this spacious kitchen, that comprises space-efficient appliances, and laminate countertops. The living area is very large with tons of windows for natural light. The master bedroom is very spacious and has carpet flooring with a walk-in closet. Private, tranquil and peaceful yard.

20. 2000-01-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 47.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥95°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,546
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $5,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, TX
• County: Brewster County · 7,853 people
• City population: 7,853
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,853
• Household income: $66,546
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.21%
• Current HPI: 178.4899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $159,000 ODMLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-29 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2022-08-08 Listed $99,000 ODMLS
• 2000-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,546 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.