2629 Netherton Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1960 7,701 sqft lot Est $165k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• 7,701 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area per public records
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage recorded

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 garage space); Total parking for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Natural gas connected; Phone available; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Private ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Brick veneer exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; House structure; Built date per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard; Concrete road/driveway surface; Panel doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Attic fan; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Aluminum window frames; Window blinds; Basement with 8 ft+ poured concrete
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Keeven Elem. (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,037 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 267 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,403 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,164
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2628 Hadden Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,052 (0%)	8mo	$189,900	$181	92
11100 Landseer Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+6%)	6mo	$187,000	$168	76
2515 Linnell Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (+3%)	1mo	$109,900	$102	71
4895 Lockwig Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+4%)	10mo	$124,900	$114	69
2633 Hadden Dr	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,164 (+11%)	7mo	$120,000	$103	67
2252 Luxmore Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	986 (-6%)	6mo	$59,000	$60	62
4401 Rhine Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+3%)	7mo	$169,900	$157	56
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+7%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	55
4364 Satiris Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+3%)	8mo	$148,900	$138	53
4384 Remus Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+7%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	51
1749 Foley Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	936 (-11%)	6mo	$115,000	$123	40
10719 Trask Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	900 (-14%)	3mo	$143,500	$159	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $34,354
• Equity at exit: $79,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $111,251
• Equity at exit: $127,866

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,811/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	0.19mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	0.24mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	0.45mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	0.58mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	0.64mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.74mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	1d	1	0.91mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	1.04mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	1.04mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	1.07mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	1d	1	1.09mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	1.09mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	43d	1	1.21mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.21mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	1.21mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	1.24mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.25mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	1.26mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	1.27mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	1.29mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	43d	1	1.32mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	1.36mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	1d	17	1.37mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	7d	1	1.43mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	1.43mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.44mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	1.45mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	1.45mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.45mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,811
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$399
• After-tax cash flow: $1,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,811 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.