515 Corson Tavern Unit H31 · Ocean View, NJ 08230

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition $100/sqft · 5% below area Est $69k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Site H31 at Lake & Shore RV Resort—your perfect seasonal getaway! This charming beach getaway features two bedrooms plus a loft that can comfortably sleep two or more, making it ideal for hosting family and friends. Enjoy a nice-sized yard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. The lot fee for this year has already been paid. It included all the furniture inside and out, plus a golf cart. Lake & Shore offers incredible amenities, including a large swimming pool, lake access, water park, basketball court, pickleball, and miniature golf—there’s truly something for everyone! They have activities for both adults and kids every week. The annual lot fee is $10,044, and membership with Thousand Trails is required. The resort is open full-time from April 1 through the end of October, with weekend access (Friday–Monday) during the off-season. What are you waiting for? It’s time to start making memories at your own Shore getaway!

Key facts

• Nice sized yard
• Pickleball
• Basketball court

Tags

• NICE SIZED YARD
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL
• LAKE ACCESS
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PICKLEBALL
• MINIATURE GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dennis Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.26%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,517
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -5.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $26,447
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $70,702
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08230

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $603	+0% $580	+5% $558	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $529	+0% $580	+5% $632	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $597	base $580	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $75,000 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Welcome to Site H31 at Lake & Shore RV Resort—your perfect seasonal getaway! This charming beach getaway features two bedrooms plus a loft that can comfortably sleep two or more, making it ideal for hosting family and friends. Enjoy a nice-sized yard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. The lot fee for this year has already been paid. It included all the furniture inside and out, plus a golf cart. Lake & Shore offers incredible amenities, including a large swimming pool, lake access, water park, basketball court, pickleball, and miniature golf—there’s truly something for everyone! They have activities for both adults and kids every week. The annual lot fee is $10,044, and membership with Thousand Trails is required. The resort is open full-time from April 1 through the end of October, with weekend access (Friday–Monday) during the off-season. What are you waiting for? It’s time to start making memories at your own Shore getaway!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $5,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting the exterior and interior, and replacing worn flooring, can significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Paint is faded and walls show signs of wear
• Major Flooring — Hardwood floors appear worn
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Cabinets appear worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring can improve comfort and value
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint is faded and walls show signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Hardwood floors appear worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Cabinets appear worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring can improve comfort and value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dennis Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403840
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,052
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6055
• State rank: #284 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean View

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean View, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,998

Population outlook (Cape May County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,234 people
• By 2030: 84,144 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 75,146 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 67,389 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 55,732 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 44,972 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape May

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.7% · R 58.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.9 2016: R+19.9 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.62%
• Current HPI: 347.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS