7863 Niagara Ave #1921 · East Lake-Orient Park, FL 33617

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1981 $499/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO. OWNER HAS HAD UNIT TOO LONG MUST SELL VERY SOONSOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO

Key facts

• $499 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $499.03; Total annual fees $5,988.36; Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: HOA required (Blue Ribbon Property Mgmt); Monthly HOA fee of $376.03; Condo fee $123 monthly; Association amenities include gated entry, pool, security; Association fee covers 24-hour guard, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, security, sewer, trash, water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Carport with 1 space
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard; Security (community); Pool (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two stories; Second-floor unit; Faces west
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Building number 19
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Screened patio; Balcony; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Smoke detector(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (9.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $150k implies a 445% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,248 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-34,585
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,068
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33617

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,887/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$499
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,906

Max offer price $135,248

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-41	+0% $-84	+5% $-126	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-155	+0% $-84	+5% $-12	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-45	base $-84	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4418 Porpoise Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$2,100	$2.15	12d	1	0.09mi
4991 Puritan Cir #522 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$1,599	$1.76	25d	1	0.11mi
5125 Puritan Cir #1103 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,850	$1.55	11d	1	0.14mi
5138 Puritan Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1757	$2,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.19mi
7134 N 50th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,650	$1.80	25d	1	0.25mi
5003 Puritan Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	5d	1	0.32mi
7113 N 50th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,050	$1.53	21d	1	0.34mi
4122 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.35mi
4105 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,995	$1.46	5d	1	0.37mi
4105 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,195	$1.61	25d	1	0.37mi
7402 E Bank Dr #7402 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.40mi
4113 Gradstone Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,590	$1.17	15d	1	0.42mi
4119 Gradstone Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	14d	1	0.42mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Unit 01 020 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,500	$1.69	25d	1	0.59mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	3d	56	0.59mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,550	$1.37	25d	1	0.59mi
5013 E Sligh Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	939	$1,412	$1.50	0d	7	0.63mi
7606 Abbey Ln #208 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	25d	1	0.69mi
7505 Pitch Pine Cir #122 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.70mi
7506 Presley Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	25d	1	0.70mi
5008 Sierra Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,161	$1.48	15d	1	0.71mi
5008 Sierra Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,615	$1.44	20d	1	0.71mi
7607 Abbey Ln Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	25d	1	0.73mi
8412 Rio Bravo Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1014	$1,384	$1.36	25d	1	0.73mi
4483 Cambio Gardens Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,282	$0.75	0d	1	0.74mi
7516 Needle Leaf Pl #44 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.74mi
8501 N 50th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	730	$1,710	$2.34	25d	1	0.76mi
4007 E Pocahontas Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.81mi
4406 E Mango Ter Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1680	$1,499	$0.89	25d	1	0.85mi
8720 N 48th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,249	$1.25	3d	1	0.87mi
5659 Del Prado Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1229	$1,550	$1.26	0d	4	0.87mi
7011 San Ramon Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,475	$1.40	14d	5	0.88mi
4939 E Busch Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,699	$2.21	17d	1	0.90mi
8729 N 50th St Unit H Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,695	$1.60	14d	1	0.93mi
8731 N 50th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	936	$1,648	$1.76	3d	2	0.95mi
8731 N 50th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,695	$1.60	14d	1	0.95mi
8731 N 50th St Unit H Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,775	$1.67	15d	1	0.95mi
8733 N 50th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	25d	1	0.97mi
6919 Bonair Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,350	$1.65	17d	10	1.00mi
4121 E Busch Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	955	$2,002	$2.10	0d	14	1.01mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $499 · $5,988/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2011-08-05
   soldstatus $27,500 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO. OWNER HAS HAD UNIT TOO LONG MUST SELL VERY SOONSOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO

4. 2011-07-22
   listed $27,500 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO. OWNER HAS HAD UNIT TOO LONG MUST SELL VERY SOONSOLD AS-IS BROKER IS SELLING HIS WIFE'S CONDO

5. 1989-11-01
   soldstatus $40,600
6. 1982-09-01
   soldstatus $66,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,887 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,887 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,887
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$5,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Lake-Orient Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Lake-Orient Park, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 45,396
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,851
• Household income: $50,948
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3295.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.20%
• Current HPI: 352.4572
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+124.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-05 Sold (MLS) $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-22 Listed $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,600 Public Records
• 1982-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,887 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.