802 Philadelphia St · Covington, KY 41011

$269,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,078 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

1,500 sqft lot Est $534k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Very Large Duplex- 1st floor unit is Kitchen/Living/Laundry/Full Bath/2 Bedrooms. 2nd and 3rd floors combined- Kitchen/Laundry/Living/Possibly 3/4 Bedrooms. **Buyer to verify Schools, Square Footage, utilities.**

Key facts

• Covington location
• Multi-family use
• Downtown access

Tags

• COVINGTON LOCATION
• MULTI-FAMILY USE
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• DOWNTOWN ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $269k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,027/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1488% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $269k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.75%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $534,046
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
802 Philadelphia St	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,078 (0%)	0mo	$269,000	$129	100
1124 Holman St	0.43mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,120 (+2%)	18mo	$545,000	$257	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $45,503
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $138,601
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $1,490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,643	-5% $1,567	+0% $1,490	+5% $1,414	+10% $1,338
Rent	-10% $1,172	-5% $1,331	+0% $1,490	+5% $1,650	+10% $1,809
Rate	-1.0pp $1,626	-0.5pp $1,559	base $1,490	+0.5pp $1,421	+1.0pp $1,350

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,906
1× unit	3	1	$2,122
Total (2 units)			$4,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1808 Holman Ave Covington, KY	6.0	2.5	2600	$2,875	$1.11	2d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $269,000 Active
3. 2017-03-27
   soldstatus $142,700
4. 2017-03-24
   soldstatus $142,700 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Very Large Duplex- 1st floor unit is Kitchen/Living/Laundry/Full Bath/2 Bedrooms. 2nd and 3rd floors combined- Kitchen/Laundry/Living/Possibly 3/4 Bedrooms. **Buyer to verify Schools, Square Footage, utilities.**

5. 2017-02-01
   historical
6. 2017-01-19
   listed $149,941 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Very Large Duplex- 1st floor unit is Kitchen/Living/Laundry/Full Bath/2 Bedrooms. 2nd and 3rd floors combined- Kitchen/Laundry/Living/Possibly 3/4 Bedrooms. **Buyer to verify Schools, Square Footage, utilities.**

7. 2017-01-12
   listed $149,941
8. 2008-04-18
   soldstatus $88,000
9. 2008-04-18
   soldstatus $88,000
10. 2008-03-01
    listed $93,000
11. 2007-11-19
    historical
12. 2007-05-18
    listed $96,900
13. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus $80,000
14. 2004-03-10
    soldstatus $80,000
15. 2004-01-13
    listed $86,900
16. 1994-07-07
    soldstatus $24,000
17. 1994-07-06
    soldstatus $24,000
18. 1994-02-20
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,866
• − Management: −$3,866
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $14,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,441
• After-tax cash flow: $14,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+799.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $269,000 NKMLS
• 2017-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $142,700 Public Records
• 2017-03-24 Sold (MLS) $142,700 NKMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2017-01-19 Listed $149,941 NKMLS
• 2017-01-12 Listed $149,941 NKMLS
• 2008-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-18 Sold (MLS) $88,000 NKMLS
• 2008-03-01 Listed $93,000 NKMLS
• 2007-11-19 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-05-18 Listed $96,900 NKMLS
• 2004-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-10 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NKMLS
• 2004-01-13 Listed $86,900 NKMLS
• 1994-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-06 Sold (MLS) $24,000 NKMLS
• 1994-02-20 Listed $29,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,018 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.