20 Oak St · Wurtsboro, NY 12790

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 2003 Average condition $55/sqft · 58% below area $840/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, local, clean, updated, available today! Come see this cute 2 bedroom 1 bath home in the Village of Wurtsboro. Just 1.5 hours to NYC you can go anywhere! Walk the quiet streets of Wurtsboro Village or Stay in and relax with new kitchen appliances and an extra large living space. Come See It Today! HOA Approval Needed HOA Includes: > Water > Septic > Garbage > Taxes > Road Plowing

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2003
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#453 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.18%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,152
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -57.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Pennsylvania	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+14%)	8mo	$132,750	$98	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $60,271
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.76×
• Total profit: $159,451
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$840
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Sullivan St Unit Downstairs Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	14d	1	0.27mi
127 Pine St Unit 4 Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,525	$2.10	14d	1	0.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $840 · $10,080/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-05-13
   price $65,000 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Affordable, local, clean, updated, available today! Come see this cute 2 bedroom 1 bath home in the Village of Wurtsboro. Just 1.5 hours to NYC you can go anywhere! Walk the quiet streets of Wurtsboro Village or Stay in and relax with new kitchen appliances and an extra large living space. Come See It Today! HOA Approval Needed HOA Includes: > Water > Septic > Garbage > Taxes > Road Plowing

4. 2026-04-13
   price $68,000 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Affordable, local, clean, updated, available today! Come see this cute 2 bedroom 1 bath home in the Village of Wurtsboro. Just 1.5 hours to NYC you can go anywhere! Walk the quiet streets of Wurtsboro Village or Stay in and relax with new kitchen appliances and an extra large living space. Come See It Today! HOA Approval Needed HOA Includes: > Water > Septic > Garbage > Taxes > Road Plowing

5. 2026-03-12
   listed $70,000 Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Affordable, local, clean, updated, available today! Come see this cute 2 bedroom 1 bath home in the Village of Wurtsboro. Just 1.5 hours to NYC you can go anywhere! Walk the quiet streets of Wurtsboro Village or Stay in and relax with new kitchen appliances and an extra large living space. Come See It Today! HOA Approval Needed HOA Includes: > Water > Septic > Garbage > Taxes > Road Plowing

6. 2026-03-04
   historical $70,000 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Affordable, local, clean, updated, available today! Come see this cute 2 bedroom 1 bath home in the Village of Wurtsboro. Just 1.5 hours to NYC you can go anywhere! Walk the quiet streets of Wurtsboro Village or Stay in and relax with new kitchen appliances and an extra large living space. Come See It Today! HOA Approval Needed HOA Includes: > Water > Septic > Garbage > Taxes > Road Plowing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$10,080
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,058
• After-tax cash flow: $3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Wurtsboro offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation, with potential for significant value increase through updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard, could be updated

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and adds value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard, could be updated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and adds value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wurtsboro

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #7914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wurtsboro, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $65,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $68,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $70,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Coming Soon $70,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid