405 E Cole St · Dunn, NC 28334

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1920
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.1% in Dunn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#390 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Triton High (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #350 of 535 statewide, top 66%, 1,287 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.51%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,414
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 E Granville St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-4%)	16mo	$216,500	$158	60
1007 N King Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,422 (-1%)	13mo	$258,000	$181	59
103 Crepe Myrtle Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	5mo	$235,000	$168	59
902 N Magnolia Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (-13%)	20mo	$190,295	$153	52
311 N Layton Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-6%)	9mo	$202,500	$150	46
205 N Layton Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,360 (-5%)	15mo	$205,000	$151	45
203 N Fayetteville Ave	0.56mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,382 (-4%)	18mo	$220,000	$159	42
117 Mars Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,223 (-15%)	6mo	$205,000	$168	32
306 N Ellis Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+9%)	20mo	$248,000	$158	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,780
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $48,426
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28334

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,057/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 N Ellis Ave Dunn, NC	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	13d	1	0.62mi
202 S Sampson Ave Dunn, NC	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	13d	1	0.78mi
1001 Webster Dr Dunn, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	900	$1,175	$1.31	12d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $99,900
3. 2026-02-22
   listed $109,900 Active
4. 2026-01-09
   soldstatus $139,900
5. 2023-06-12
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

6. 2023-06-12
   historical 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

7. 2023-06-12
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

8. 2023-05-23
   status Pending 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

9. 2023-04-28
   status Active 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

10. 2023-04-28
    price $90,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

11. 2023-04-05
    status Pending 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

12. 2023-03-20
    price $100,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

13. 2023-03-03
    status Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

14. 2023-02-25
    status Pending 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

15. 2023-02-22
    historical $110,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

16. 2023-02-22
    listed $90,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Great house with a ton of potential in Dunn on two lots. Convenient location and situated on a spacious double lot. Will need remodel. Sold As-Is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,057
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$980
• After-tax cash flow: $4,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dunn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #15160

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunn, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 22,873
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,873
• Household income: $53,036
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.76%
• Current HPI: 275.5055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $99,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $109,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $70,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-06-12 Delisted — AMLSNC
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $70,000 TMLS
• 2023-05-23 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-04-28 Relisted — TMLS
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $90,000 TMLS
• 2023-04-05 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $100,000 TMLS
• 2023-03-03 Relisted — TMLS
• 2023-02-25 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-02-22 Coming Soon $110,000 TMLS
• 2023-02-22 Listed $90,000 AMLSNC

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,057 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.