4377 Saxon Dr · Hephzibah, GA 30815

$199,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1972 0.34 ac lot $151/sqft · 33% above area Est $150k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

Key facts

• Updated brick ranch
• Timeless curb appeal
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED BRICK RANCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE WOOD PRIVACY FENCE
• MOVE-IN READY PROPERTY
• TIMELESS CURB APPEAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Metal siding and brick exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Privacy fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Other; Window coverings; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Hephzibah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#418 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hephzibah Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #996 of 1,228 statewide, top 83%, 375 students, 98% FRL); Hephzibah Middle School (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #388 of 470 statewide, top 83%, 517 students, 98% FRL); Hephzibah High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #385 of 424 statewide, top 92%, 1,072 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,420
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 32.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2409 Bell Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,270 (-4%)	2mo	$155,000	$122	77
2408 Carpenter Ave	0.10mi	4/1.5	1,377 (+4%)	15mo	$179,900	$131	76
2411 Carpenter Ave	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,352 (+2%)	18mo	$159,900	$118	71
4402 Miller St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,270 (-4%)	24mo	$120,000	$94	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,354
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,144
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30815

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,657/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $353	+0% $297	+5% $240	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $218	+0% $297	+5% $375	+10% $453
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $347	base $297	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    historical
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $209,900 Active
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $209,900 Active 428-char remark
19. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $169,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

20. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $169,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

21. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $169,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

22. 2023-01-31
    listed $169,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

23. 2023-01-31
    listed $169,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    3477 Saxon Rd. .. Completely updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath brick ranch. Brand new appliances, flooring, countertops, fresh paint and more!

24. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $67,000
25. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,657 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,657
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$76
• After-tax cash flow: $3,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hephzibah

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #418
• US rank: #20670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hephzibah, GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 44,109
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 44,109
• Household income: $70,202
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.74%
• Current HPI: 162.4074
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $169,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $169,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $169,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $169,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,657 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.