10147 Mayfair Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$54,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1964 0.34 ac lot ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is ready for renovation, presenting an excellent opportunity for a buyer with vision to add significant value and customize the property. With a large basement, opportunity awaits! This asset is available as part of a one-off purchase or a portfolio deal. Contact the listing agent to explore packaging options with other properties.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lemasters Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.82%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,722
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10129 Ventura Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,055 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$123	77
1923 Nashua Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	74
10269 Dacey Dr	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$167	73
1719 Newhall Ct	0.46mi	3/1.0	975 (-4%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	70
9739 Balboa Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	999 (-2%)	1mo	$76,900	$77	66
10418 Quaker Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	65
9614 Winkler Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+1%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	62
9871 Medford Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	950 (-6%)	2mo	$124,900	$131	62
10038 Balboa Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	864 (-15%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	62
2014 Kappel Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (-2%)	2mo	$19,000	$19	57
9863 Eastdell Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,126 (+11%)	1mo	$139,900	$124	46
1715 Hudson Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+13%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $52,280
• Equity at exit: $27,164

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $130,627
• Equity at exit: $43,901

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,087/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $508

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	0.11mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.19mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.22mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.22mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.28mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	0.35mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.36mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.39mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.45mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.46mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.52mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.53mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.55mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.56mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	21d	1	0.56mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.56mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.59mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.67mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.67mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.68mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.68mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.71mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.74mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.76mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.78mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.82mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.88mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.92mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.94mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.95mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.97mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.98mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.00mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	1.02mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	1.03mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	1.03mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	1.04mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.06mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	1.09mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $54,900 Active
3. 2025-02-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-01-06
   listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,087
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $7,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $5,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-56.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,087 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.