12339 Parsons Isle Ter · Palmetto, FL 34221

$362,240

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $152/sqft · 34% below area Est $549k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-770/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,172/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,169 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,283
• List price: $362,240
• Delta: -34.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11548 69th Pl E	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	2mo	$452,490	$184	62
12763 Dockyard Trl	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+0%)	4mo	$453,079	$189	54
7144 119th Ct E	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	7mo	$384,340	$155	52
11220 Fieldstone Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-5%)	8mo	$381,000	$169	50
6917 E 116th Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	10mo	$472,290	$193	49
6838 E 115th St	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	13mo	$429,500	$175	48
5410 Orsello St	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,465 (+3%)	9mo	$650,000	$264	47
11749 E 71st Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	12mo	$373,290	$151	45
6438 Milestone Loop	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-5%)	13mo	$412,000	$181	44
11733 E 71st Ter	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	13mo	$380,000	$153	43
11302 Seasons Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,275 (-5%)	10mo	$710,750	$312	42
6913 116th Ct E	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (+11%)	12mo	$508,540	$192	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-71,993
• Equity at exit: $54,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-103,515
• Equity at exit: $31,320

Cash invested: $101,427 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $373,200 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 27 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,900
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,434/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,253

Max offer price $352,953

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $61	+0% $-64	+5% $-189	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-189	+0% $-64	+5% $61	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $28	base $-64	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,560
• Closing costs: $10,867
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	73d	1	0.67mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	73d	1	0.74mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	73d	1	0.76mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	33d	1	1.08mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,700	$1.65	41d	1	1.42mi
8415 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,699	$1.22	27d	1	1.43mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	19d	1	1.43mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	69d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $362,240 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $362,240 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $362,240 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $362,240 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $362,240 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-27
   days on market $362,240 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-25
   days on market $362,240 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $362,240 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $362,240 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $361,640 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $361,640 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $361,640 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    price $358,640 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $357,640 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $357,540 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $357,440 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $357,340 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-06-09
    days on market $357,240 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-06-08
    price $357,240 Active 1 DOM
20. 2026-06-08
    remarks 372-char remark
21. 2026-06-08
    listed $355,140 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,291
• − Property taxes: −$5,434
• − Insurance: −$2,609
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,045
• − Management: −$3,045
• − Depreciation: −$10,538
• Taxable loss: −$6,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,656
• After-tax cash flow: $886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,945–$35,835 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more tenants. ↑
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B