12339 Parsons Isle Ter · Ruskin, FL 34221

$362,240

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $452k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,389 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Active new-construction spec home; Plan name: Columbia

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($178/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,188/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,521
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11548 69th Pl E	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	0mo	$452,490	$184	64
12763 Dockyard Trl	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+0%)	3mo	$453,079	$189	55
7144 119th Ct E	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	5mo	$384,340	$155	53
11220 Fieldstone Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-5%)	6mo	$381,000	$169	51
6917 E 116th Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	9mo	$472,290	$193	51
5410 Orsello St	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,465 (+3%)	8mo	$650,000	$264	48
11749 E 71st Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	11mo	$373,290	$151	46
6438 Milestone Loop	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-5%)	11mo	$412,000	$181	45
11733 E 71st Ter	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+4%)	12mo	$380,000	$153	45
11302 Seasons Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,275 (-5%)	8mo	$710,750	$312	44
6834 E 115th St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (+11%)	12mo	$509,540	$192	37
6913 116th Ct E	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,647 (+11%)	10mo	$508,540	$192	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-67,047
• Equity at exit: $54,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,073
• Equity at exit: $31,320

Cash invested: $101,427 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,900
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,434/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,169

Max offer price $362,240

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $140	+0% $15	+5% $-110	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-111	+0% $15	+5% $141	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $107	base $15	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,560
• Closing costs: $10,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	25d	1	0.67mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	25d	1	0.74mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	25d	1	0.76mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	25d	1	1.42mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	5d	1	1.43mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $362,240 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,640 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,640 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $361,640 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $358,640 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $357,640 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $357,540 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $357,440 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $357,340 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $357,240 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    price $357,240 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    remarks 372-char remark
13. 2026-06-08
    listed $355,140 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,291
• − Property taxes: −$5,434
• − Insurance: −$1,811
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,060
• − Management: −$3,060
• − Depreciation: −$10,538
• Taxable loss: −$5,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $1,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more tenants.
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more tenants. ↑
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B