10232 Geese Trail Cir · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2019 4,440 sqft lot $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

Key facts

• One story
• Private owners suite
• Community amenities

Tags

• ONE STORY
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot approximately 0.1 acres (40 x 111) with asphalt road frontage; Living area approximately 1,516 (per public records); total building area listed as 2,034
• Financial info: CDD (Community Development District) present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Cypress Creek of Hillsborough HOA Inc; Quarterly association fee ($265) covering cable TV and pool; Monthly HOA equivalent about $88.33; Community amenities: dog park, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South-facing; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by DR Horton (Allex model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $197k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,642 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-57,208
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,033
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,972/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,570

Max offer price $234,538

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-48	-5% $-124	+0% $-201	+5% $-277	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-292	+0% $-201	+5% $-109	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-132	base $-201	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15416 Gopher Trop Pl Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$2,300	$1.30	26d	1	0.10mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.15mi
2421 E Del Webb Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	0.19mi
15504 Florence Hollow Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,150	$1.20	6d	1	0.58mi
9771 Pembrooke Pines Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,025	$1.24	5d	1	0.61mi
9718 Mulberry Marsh Ln Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1663	$1,973	$1.19	17d	1	0.70mi
15628 Aurora Lake Cir Wimauma, FL	2.0	2.0	1747	$2,200	$1.26	26d	1	0.76mi
9637 Pembrooke Pines Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.5	1548	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.77mi
15503 Prestwick Rose Pl Unit 1 Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.84mi
16260 Amethyst Key Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,300	$1.22	26d	1	0.91mi
4408 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	26d	1	1.13mi
1904 N Pebble Beach Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,600	$0.91	15d	1	1.16mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	26d	1	1.18mi
4529 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,450	$1.28	22d	1	1.27mi
1814 Columbine Pl Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	26d	1	1.29mi
301 Bryce Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	26d	1	1.36mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	19d	1	1.37mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	6d	1	1.37mi
10237 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,526	$1.32	1d	1	1.40mi
1750 Atrium Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$1,750	$1.28	26d	1	1.41mi
810 Oakmont Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,100	$1.66	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $269,990 Active
3. 2019-07-23
   soldstatus $197,490 Sold 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

4. 2019-06-13
   status Pending 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

5. 2019-05-30
   price $194,990 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

6. 2019-05-23
   price $196,990 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

7. 2019-05-06
   price $203,990 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

8. 2019-04-17
   price $189,990 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

9. 2019-04-11
   price $194,990 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

10. 2019-03-28
    price $201,990 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

11. 2019-02-22
    listed $200,990 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated between the living area and dining room. The kitchen, which overlooks the living area and covered lanai, comes with all appliances, including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The owner's suite, located at the back of the home for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052

12. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $353,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,972 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,972 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,972
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$7,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-23 Sold (MLS) $197,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-30 Price Changed $194,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Price Changed $196,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Price Changed $203,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-17 Price Changed $189,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-11 Price Changed $194,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-28 Price Changed $201,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-22 Listed $200,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $353,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,972 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.