3 Aspen At Wilmer Xing · Wentzville, MO 63385

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

$231/sqft · 20% below area Est $369k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Royal II Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This flexible two story home offers plenty of living space! The main floor is great for entertaining, with a kitchen that opens to the breakfast room and family room, plus a formal dining room for additional space. Second floor features the master suite with private bath and 3 secondary bedrooms with hall bath. Additional selections include luxury kitchen or a luxury master bath. The Royal II includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, and more! Additional personal selections may include bay windows, fireplace, or great room window wall. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

Key facts

• Extensive cabinetry
• Gas fireplace
• Open great room

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• EXTENSIVE CABINETRY
• OPTIONAL BREAKFAST BAR
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Wentzville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duello Elem. (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #331 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 3% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,239 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,969
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Butterfly Garden Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	2mo	$345,900	$270	90
352 Butterfly Garden Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	11mo	$355,594	$278	89
1735 Wilmer Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	6mo	$389,000	$288	75
400 Butterfly Garden Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,336 (+4%)	15mo	$340,000	$254	70
1034 Silo Bend Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,338 (+5%)	8mo	$325,000	$243	49
1028 Silo Bend Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,338 (+5%)	12mo	$325,000	$243	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,157
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-77,252
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $246,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-236	+0% $-338	+5% $-439	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-508	-5% $-423	+0% $-338	+5% $-253	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-263	base $-338	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Dogleg Ct Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.0	1374	$2,400	$1.75	25d	1	1.15mi
307 Columbia Dr Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.5	1206	$1,750	$1.45	19d	1	1.40mi
209 Pecan Bluffs Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,295	$1.33	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,900 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $337,900 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (976 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Sterling Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on various interior/exterior selections. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. The Sterling includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional floorplan enhancements include an expanded first floor with enlarged kitchen, dining area and laundry room, bay window in dining area, or a luxury master bath. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

17. 2026-03-31
    price $320,900 976-char remark

    Show marketing remark (976 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Sterling Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on various interior/exterior selections. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. The Sterling includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional floorplan enhancements include an expanded first floor with enlarged kitchen, dining area and laundry room, bay window in dining area, or a luxury master bath. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

18. 2026-03-31
    price $294,900

    Show marketing remark (976 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Sterling Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on various interior/exterior selections. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. The Sterling includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional floorplan enhancements include an expanded first floor with enlarged kitchen, dining area and laundry room, bay window in dining area, or a luxury master bath. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

19. 2025-12-16
    listed $289,900 Active
20. 2025-12-11
    listed $332,900 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Royal II Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This flexible two story home offers plenty of living space! The main floor is great for entertaining, with a kitchen that opens to the breakfast room and family room, plus a formal dining room for additional space. Second floor features the master suite with private bath and 3 secondary bedrooms with hall bath. Additional selections include luxury kitchen or a luxury master bath. The Royal II includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, and more! Additional personal selections may include bay windows, fireplace, or great room window wall. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

21. 2025-12-10
    listed $315,900 Active 976-char remark

    Show marketing remark (976 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE and PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Sterling Two Story. Pricing will vary depending on various interior/exterior selections. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. The Sterling includes 2 car garage, main floor laundry, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional floorplan enhancements include an expanded first floor with enlarged kitchen, dining area and laundry room, bay window in dining area, or a luxury master bath. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Onsite amenities at Wilmer Crossing include a community playground, pavilion with BBQ pits and picnic tables, and pickleball court. Display photos shown.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$9,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wentzville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1402

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 51,330
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $337,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $320,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $294,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $289,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listed $332,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $315,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid