12329 Crab Orchard Rd · Coeburn, VA 24230

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1920 4.70 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Home has lots of charm and privacy but needs some TLC. This 3+ bedroom 1 bath home has 1456 sq. ft. of living space to include Lg. kitchen, dining room, living room, small bonus room and full basement with workshop area. Home is located on 4.70 ac. with several barns, sheds and storage with some woods and rolling land with wildlife. Home has fairly new oil furnace. ''Sold AS IS'' and ready for a New Owner. * Owners will retain a ROW to home at end of road. *

Key facts

• Workshop area
• Living room
• Full basement

Tags

• LG KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• SMALL BONUS ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• WORKSHOP AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Barn(s); Shed(s); Rolling slope and wooded topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator; Hardwood floors; Basement with block and concrete construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 5.4% in Coeburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#383 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Coeburn Primary (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #106 of 1,108 statewide, top 11%, 466 students, 80% FRL); Coeburn Middle (math 76% / reading 80%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 307 students, 89% FRL); Eastside High (math 82% / reading 72%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 390 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 55% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $607 of equity ($553 loan paydown + $54 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.94%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,528
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Quillen Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-3%)	17mo	$131,000	$93	60
610 Kiser Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	22mo	$165,000	$113	57
513 Central St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	10mo	$162,000	$100	49
621 King Ave Ave SE	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-4%)	22mo	$220,000	$158	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $32,305
• Equity at exit: $23,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $83,140
• Equity at exit: $28,469

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24230

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $586	-5% $563	+0% $540	+5% $518	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $489	+0% $540	+5% $592	+10% $643
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $561	base $540	+0.5pp $520	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Prospect Ave NW Coeburn, VA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-20
   price $80,000
4. 2025-11-12
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $5,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Coeburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #15422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,057

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 135.5947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $80,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $90,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.