S 402 Menominee St · Stephenson, MI 49887

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1971 0.41 ac lot Est $173k · 43% under ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking with this new listing. Need a place for your small business? Look no further, small 300 square foot building with heat and zoned business would make an ideal place to work. Plus you can live in the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home located on the same property. There are two - 2 car garages, a garden shed and beautifully landscaped yard. All this for $99,000. Call today to see!

Key facts

• Landscaped yard
• Garden shed
• 2 car garages

Tags

• 2 CAR GARAGES
• GARDEN SHED
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#241 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Stephenson Area Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #158 of 540 in MI (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Menominee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Menominee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,101
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
S 402 Menominee St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,300 (-5%)	0mo	$75,000	$58	92
S327 Section St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,362 (-0%)	3mo	$146,000	$107	78
W614 Robert St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (+3%)	22mo	$161,000	$115	62
S703 Hwy 41	0.14mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	6mo	$168,000	$140	61
W702 Division St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+3%)	15mo	$138,000	$98	58
S205 School St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-5%)	23mo	$74,000	$57	54
S205 School St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-5%)	23mo	$74,000	$57	54
W888 Robert St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,248 (-8%)	8mo	$180,000	$144	49
W615 Division St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,484 (+9%)	22mo	$200,000	$135	48
W609 Division St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (-15%)	14mo	$147,500	$127	47
N316 Willow St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-5%)	23mo	$205,000	$158	43
N8554 Riverside Drive N3	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-5%)	22mo	$215,000	$165	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $35,792
• Equity at exit: $54,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $96,325
• Equity at exit: $91,581

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49887

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $268	+0% $234	+5% $200	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $188	+0% $234	+5% $280	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $259	base $234	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-23
   price $99,000
3. 2025-09-22
   price $99,900
4. 2025-09-08
   listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,116
• − Management: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$314
• After-tax cash flow: $2,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenson Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633000
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,428
• Composite: 37.65/100
• National rank: #4372
• State rank: #158 of 540 in MI

Livability — Stephenson

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #6060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stephenson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,735

Population outlook (Menominee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,668 people
• By 2030: 21,986 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,196 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 18,335 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 14,771 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 10,999 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 9% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Menominee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+29.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Current HPI: 260.0642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Pending — RANW
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $99,000 RANW
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $99,900 RANW
• 2025-09-08 Listed $119,900 RANW