4947 Mill Pond Rd Unit 3104/3106 · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$209,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · Condo · 318 Days on market

Built 1981 $806/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged-“Luxury Grand Lifestyle" Ready to live Where Legends Trained! Now its your turn to live in this Elegant & tranquilizing Unique gated secured community in Wesley Chapel, Florida! 3 bedrooms & 3 Bath beautiful & newly renovated Condominium is for you! Visit this turn key spacious & very quite place for your privacy. All the appliances plus TV's are included. This place can be yours in a heartbeat. You will love this property and make it your own today! It’s a investment Galore with 24-hour Guard at Main and only entrance, PLUS Golf Course, 3 swimming pools, Tennis Courts, 3 Pickle ball courts, Basketball Court, Shuffleboard Court,

Key facts

• 43 tennis courts
• Turnkey property
• 27-hole golf course

Tags

• 43 TENNIS COURTS
• 27-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• FITNESS AND SPA
• WALKING TRAILS
• FULLY FURNISHED
• TURNKEY PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to property
• Financial info: Total annual fees $9,683.52; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $806.96; HOA includes guard (24-hour), cable TV, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, security, trash and water; Association approval required; Gated community amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, golf, park, sidewalks; golf carts allowed; buyer approval required; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with size limit; max pet weight 10 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Common open parking; On-street parking
• Security: Gated community; Security gate; 24-hour guard; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); Faces northeast; Unit on 2nd floor
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Building number 4947
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Side porch; Sidewalk; Landscaped grounds; Greenbelt; Near/on golf course; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Interior in-law suite with private entry; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (10.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wesley Chapel Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 828 students, 37% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-50,365
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-83,743
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$806
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,849

Max offer price $188,047

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-73	+0% $-145	+5% $-217	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-250	+0% $-145	+5% $-40	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-92	base $-145	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4744 Fox Hunt Dr Unit 1022 & 1024 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	24d	1	0.27mi
5427 Villa D Este Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1534	$4,995	$3.26	3d	1	0.46mi
5424 Saddlebrook Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.54mi
4830 Isola Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,800	$1.37	18d	1	0.55mi
5439 Lady Bug Ln #2 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.56mi
4639 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,695	$1.48	24d	1	0.63mi
4612 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2048	$2,750	$1.34	24d	1	0.64mi
4664 Lagona Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	24d	1	0.67mi
4989 San Martino Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,800	$1.37	5d	1	0.70mi
5841 Dorham Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1729	$2,400	$1.39	3d	1	0.86mi
5101 Bruce B Downs Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,516	$2.36	2d	8	0.99mi
28355 Sparrows Edge Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$3,224	$3.61	3d	57	1.13mi
6213 Ashfield Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.19mi
6274 Caroline Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1497	$2,875	$1.92	2d	6	1.32mi
30120 Sotogrande Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2078	$2,600	$1.25	22d	1	1.40mi
27747 Pleasure Ride Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,190	$1.45	24d	1	1.44mi
27745 Chestnut Lake Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,861	$2.80	3d	45	1.45mi
3928 Fraccareta Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1956	$3,225	$1.65	24d	1	1.45mi
5048 Cactus Needle Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1686	$2,150	$1.28	2d	1	1.46mi
27620 Pleasure Ride Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1513	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.47mi
27542 Desert Willow Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,200	$1.40	24d	1	1.48mi
27540 Desert Willow Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$1,945	$1.23	24d	1	1.48mi
27604 Pleasure Ride Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,195	$1.45	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $806 · $9,672/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $209,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-02-02
    status Active
16. 2026-01-27
    price $245,000
17. 2025-10-02
    price $264,000
18. 2025-07-29
    listed $274,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,559
• − Management: −$2,559
• − HOA: −$9,672
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $264,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Listed $274,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid