5696 Ashford Dr · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1971 0.37 ac lot Est $170k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

~Great INVESTMENT Property~ 3 bedrooms ~ Kitchen and Great Room~ Home has potential for the right buyer willing to invest in renovations~ Home will NOT go FHA Financing~ Home does need repairs~ Being Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Asphalt roof; Built in Assessor source
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front yard; City lot; Lot approximately 0.37 acres (170 x 94)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Dead bolt locks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.0% in Horn Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horn Lake Elem (451 students, 99% FRL); Horn Lake Middle School (math 37% / reading 21%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,021 students, 100% FRL); Horn Lake High (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 197 statewide, top 49%, 1,361 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,803
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5771 Ashford Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	967 (-3%)	15mo	$189,000	$195	75
5951 Adams Cir	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,030 (+4%)	12mo	$179,900	$175	67
5722 Chickasaw Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,076 (+8%)	1mo	$189,000	$176	64
5491 Adams Cir	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+6%)	16mo	$148,900	$142	62
5682 Caroline Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,121 (+13%)	20mo	$99,900	$89	57
5820 Gray Cv	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,052 (+6%)	14mo	$179,999	$171	54
5770 Chickasaw Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+13%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	52
5215 Nail Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,073 (+8%)	23mo	$159,900	$149	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,930
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,428
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5840 Gray Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,295	$1.21	44d	1	0.54mi
5229 Nail Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	912	$1,235	$1.35	24d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $135,000 Active
15. 2021-01-04
    soldstatus
16. 2006-08-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $3,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $135,000 MLSU
• 2021-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records