81 Westlake Rd · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$99,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 340 Days on market

Built 1975 6,599 sqft lot Est $163k · 38% under · waterfront $223/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in the desirable Westwood Shores community! Featuring brand-new flooring and fresh paint throughout, this move-in-ready property sits on two spacious lots, offering exceptional outdoor space and flexibility. A large shop with two roll-up doors plus a carport provides ample room for storage, hobbies, boats, or extra vehicles. Located in a gated, lakefront community, residents enjoy access to Lake Livingston, a golf course, swimming pool, private ponds, tennis and basketball courts, and more—bringing resort-style living right to your doorstep!

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Westwood Shores POA; Annual association fee (covers clubhouse and recreation facilities); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball court, golf, marina/boat dock and ramp, RV/boat storage and parking, gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Detached carport with 2 spaces; RV access/parking
• Security: Controlled access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1975
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Porch; Near golf course; Subdivision setting; Wooded lot; Pond on the lot; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11x9, 12x10, 12x10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Controlled access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-503/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity J H (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 280 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $174 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $-517 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,518
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Westlake Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+3%)	13mo	$109,000	$116	78
25 Westlake Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (+12%)	10mo	$135,000	$132	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-7,820
• Equity at exit: $26,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $952
• Equity at exit: $29,853

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,028/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $92,587

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-14	+0% $-42	+5% $-70	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-88	+0% $-42	+5% $4	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-17	base $-42	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,999 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,999 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,999 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 326 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 319 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 318 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    status Active
19. 2026-05-15
    historical
20. 2026-05-09
    status Active
21. 2026-03-22
    status Pending
22. 2026-03-08
    status Pending
23. 2026-02-10
    price $99,999
24. 2026-01-28
    price $110,000
25. 2025-12-11
    price $118,999
26. 2025-07-27
    price $119,999
27. 2025-07-21
    status Active
28. 2025-07-12
    status Pending
29. 2025-05-18
    listed $125,000 Active
30. 2025-04-28
    historical $125,000
31. 2015-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,028
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$2,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $-17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westwood Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $118,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $119,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Coming Soon $125,000 HARMLS
• 2015-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,028 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.