803 Magnolia St · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2001 6,752 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience 803 Magnolia St, recently enhanced with a partial flooring replacement and fresh interior paint throughout, establishing a refreshed interior condition. The kitchen includes a central island and all stainless steel appliances for convenient meal preparation. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor space for varied use. This property includes a practical layout with updated features.

Key facts

• 6,752 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,757 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,125
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,335
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,070/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $290	+0% $235	+5% $180	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $164	+0% $235	+5% $306	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $285	base $235	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	4d	18	1.21mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $209,000 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Experience 803 Magnolia St, recently enhanced with a partial flooring replacement and fresh interior paint throughout, establishing a refreshed interior condition. The kitchen includes a central island and all stainless steel appliances for convenient meal preparation. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor space for varied use. This property includes a practical layout with updated features.

17. 2026-04-10
    listed $212,000 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Experience 803 Magnolia St, recently enhanced with a partial flooring replacement and fresh interior paint throughout, establishing a refreshed interior condition. The kitchen includes a central island and all stainless steel appliances for convenient meal preparation. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor space for varied use. This property includes a practical layout with updated features.

18. 2026-02-23
    soldstatus
19. 2018-07-03
    soldstatus 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Enjoy this bright and open 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Fresh, new carpet in living area and bedrooms! The kitchen has ample storage, including a pantry and island. Sliding back door opens to the backyard with a covered patio. Recent upgrades include a new garage door, a new roof to be installed, and Evap air was replaced in the last 2 years.

20. 2018-07-03
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Enjoy this bright and open 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Fresh, new carpet in living area and bedrooms! The kitchen has ample storage, including a pantry and island. Sliding back door opens to the backyard with a covered patio. Recent upgrades include a new garage door, a new roof to be installed, and Evap air was replaced in the last 2 years.

21. 2017-06-19
    listed $112,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Enjoy this bright and open 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Fresh, new carpet in living area and bedrooms! The kitchen has ample storage, including a pantry and island. Sliding back door opens to the backyard with a covered patio. Recent upgrades include a new garage door, a new roof to be installed, and Evap air was replaced in the last 2 years.

22. 2007-03-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,560 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,070
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+86.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $209,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $212,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-03 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2017-06-19 Listed $112,000 OCAOR
• 2007-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,070 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.