1131 Cedar Place Ln · Missouri City, TX 77459

$326,340

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,989 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 2026 $92/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Apr 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. The downstairs flex space is perfect for a home office or formal dining. From the low $300s. Parkway Commons offers a prime location in Missouri City, nestled within the highly regarded Fort Bend ISD. With direct access to Fort Bend Tollway, residents will enjoy premier connectivity to Fort Bend Town Center, a new Amazon distribution hub, and major employment destinations including Downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, Sugar Land, and Pearland. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Prime location
• Impressive kitchen

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• IMPRESSIVE KITCHEN
• CORNER PANTRY
• DOWNSTAIRS FLEX SPACE
• PRIME LOCATION
• MAJOR EMPLOYMENT DESTINATIONS

🏗️ New construction. The $326,340 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $346,086.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 744 students, 54% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,384 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,086
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1131 Cedar Place Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,989 (0%)	1mo	$326,340	$164	99
4230 Laurel Oak Cir	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,989 (0%)	1mo	$329,890	$166	98
4123 Chester Bay Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,102 (+6%)	1mo	$394,900	$188	82
1103 Cedar Place Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,853 (-7%)	1mo	$327,090	$177	81
2231 Gold Beach Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+1%)	0mo	$350,000	$174	79
1143 Cedar Place Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-13%)	1mo	$319,640	$185	72
1111 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-13%)	1mo	$288,490	$167	71
1122 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-13%)	1mo	$310,840	$180	71
1130 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,703 (-14%)	1mo	$285,290	$168	69
3946 Canyon Shore Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (-6%)	0mo	$330,000	$176	58
2215 Bronze Bay Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,748 (-12%)	1mo	$278,000	$159	55
4110 Laurel Woods Cir	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,179 (+10%)	1mo	$285,000	$131	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-69,647
• Equity at exit: $72,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-105,241
• Equity at exit: $67,231

Cash invested: $96,904 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,634 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,191/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,144

Max offer price $287,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-283	+0% $-403	+5% $-523	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-507	+0% $-403	+5% $-299	+10% $-195
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-315	base $-403	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,522
• Closing costs: $10,383
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	45d	1	0.69mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	22d	1	0.73mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	0.77mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	0.77mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	23d	1	0.92mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	21d	1	0.94mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.95mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	0.99mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	45d	1	1.05mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	1.29mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $326,340
3. 2026-02-18
   price $323,340
4. 2026-02-11
   price $328,340
5. 2026-02-09
   status Active
6. 2026-01-23
   historical
7. 2026-01-01
   price $338,340
8. 2025-12-22
   listed $336,340 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,386
• − Property taxes: −$5,191
• − Insurance: −$1,730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,528
• − Management: −$2,528
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$10,068
• Taxable loss: −$10,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,623
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $326,340 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $323,340 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $328,340 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $338,340 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $336,340 HARMLS