289 El Cielo · Thousand Oaks, CA 91320

$310,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition Est $306k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,248 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a prime location backing to open space with beautiful mountain views. Low land lease of just $850 per month! The spacious living room is filled with natural light and scenic views, while the dining area features a built-in hutch for added storage and charm. The kitchen includes a new stainless sink and faucet, dishwasher, gas range, lighted range hood, and refrigerator. The large private primary suite offers a wall-to-wall closet, lighted mirrored dressing area, and an ensuite bath with dual vanity, new faucets, and tub. The guest bedroom is generously sized with a large closet, and th

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• New stainless sink
• Wall to wall closet

Tags

• BACKING TO OPEN SPACE
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• NEW STAINLESS SINK
• LIGHTED RANGE HOOD
• WALL TO WALL CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures include pet restrictions, rent control, and other disclosures; Washer & Dryer and Fridge included; Possession at close of escrow
• Financial info: Accepts conventional financing and cash
• HOA & community: Located in a leased lot within Vallecito Mobile Home Park; Association pet rules apply

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport (not attached)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Gated community; Community security features
• Utilities: Property is in a community with utilities (land lease applies)
• Home design: Single‑level entry at ground level with steps; Mobile home (Silvercrest model, 24' x 52'); Located in a senior community
• Construction: Built in 1972; Metal/other roof; Raised foundation with pier jacks
• Exterior features: Arizona room (covered patio/porch); Private heated and filtered pool; Private spa; Vertical blinds; Property has a view; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range hood; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Paneled walls; Arizona room (covered porch/patio); Vertical blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in an individual room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $301k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Elementary (292 students, 13% FRL); Sequoia Middle (849 students, 31% FRL); Newbury Park High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #121 of 1,170 statewide, top 11%, 2,189 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,760
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 La Lomita #3	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$255,000	$213	82
272 Monte Vis	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,348 (+8%)	3mo	$372,000	$276	78
238 Vista Conejo	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$334,000	$249	73
46 La Encina	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	7mo	$190,000	$141	71
24 La Encina	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$330,000	$246	71
188 La Reina #188	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$267,000	$199	70
20 La Encina	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	16mo	$330,000	$286	65
246 El Cielo	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	23mo	$350,000	$260	65
252 El Gallardo	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+14%)	3mo	$350,000	$245	65
250 El Gallardo	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	14mo	$292,500	$214	64
110 La Fortuna #110	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	10mo	$260,000	$185	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,104
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $15,547
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91320

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $981	-5% $874	+0% $766	+5% $659	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $476	-5% $621	+0% $766	+5% $912	+10% $1,057
Rate	-1.0pp $923	-0.5pp $845	base $766	+0.5pp $686	+1.0pp $604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1194 Vista Canyon Ln Newbury Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$3,800	$2.75	45d	1	0.20mi
1194 Vista Conyon #17 Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	25d	1	0.20mi
3444 Melvin Ct Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1308	$3,600	$2.75	12d	1	0.98mi
198 San Vincente Cir Newbury Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,500	$2.62	45d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $310,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,535
• − Management: −$3,535
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $4,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $8,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home offers 1,248 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value.
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and value.
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance bathroom appeal and value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Rental HVAC system inspection — Ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs.
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value. ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance bathroom appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system inspection — Ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,472
• Household income: $148,991
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -917.39%
• Current HPI: 283.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $310,000 CSMAR