6126 Fairmont Ln · Ellenton, FL 34221

$219,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,297 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 1,220 sqft lot Est $289k · 24% under $228/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# A4494296 ~ Built by Taylor Morrison ~ September Completion! Explore the Camellia townhome. What makes this home popular is the front Dining room located at the Entry to the home. It's a versatile space and can be used as a Home Office, Game room. .. you decide! The Kitchen has plenty of counter space and overlooks the Gathering room. A half bath is also located on the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a large Owner's suite with a private bathroom that feels like what you would find in a single family home, plus a large walk-in closet. The second Bedroom, down the hallway for privacy, has its own walk in closet plus bathroom. The Laundry area is also located upstairs for convenience. Upgrades added include: Quartz Countertops, Tile throughout 1st floor, Stainless Steel Kitchen appliances, Blinds, TM Livewell Package, Modern Shaker style cabinets. Come learn more about this beautiful Camellia home design at Edgestone at Artisan Lakes Tampa, FL today! REPRESENTATIVE PHOTOS ADDED!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Outdoor sitting area

Tags

• OUTDOOR SITTING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY AREA
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees: $2,736
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association: Kimberly Williams/Castle Group); Monthly HOA: $228 (Quarterly association fee: $684); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, maintenance, and escrow reserves; Association fee covers common area taxes, pool, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Public maintained asphalt road access
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Completed condition; Two stories; South-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built by Taylor Morrison (Camellia model)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (heat pump); Central air
• Interior features: Stone counters; Blinds and drapes; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-905/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,679 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,231
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6115 Fairmont Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,297 (0%)	22mo	$265,000	$204	80
6264 Fairmont Ln	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,235 (-5%)	21mo	$275,000	$223	72
6111 Fairmont Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,120 (-14%)	12mo	$255,000	$228	66
6209 Fairmont Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,120 (-14%)	23mo	$250,000	$223	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,179
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,124
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,817/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$228
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $205,679

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-13	+0% $-75	+5% $-137	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-157	+0% $-75	+5% $6	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-20	base $-75	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	16d	1	0.06mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	16d	1	0.06mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	5d	1	0.10mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	25d	1	0.12mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.14mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,962	$1.93	5d	50	0.26mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	23d	1	0.39mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1582	$2,600	$1.64	25d	1	0.51mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	13d	1	0.54mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	25d	1	0.56mi
11720 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	0.78mi
11779 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,200	$1.58	25d	1	0.80mi
11787 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	23d	1	0.81mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	3d	21	0.82mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,958	$1.87	25d	99	0.86mi
6318 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,950	$1.73	25d	1	0.87mi
11820 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,100	$1.52	18d	1	0.87mi
6011 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,000	$1.45	5d	1	0.88mi
5924 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	22d	1	0.93mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	18d	1	0.93mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	13d	1	0.93mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,185	$1.95	4d	24	1.11mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	1.22mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	5d	1	1.22mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	1.22mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $228 · $2,736/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus $214,726 Closed 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    MLS# A4494296 ~ Built by Taylor Morrison ~ September Completion! Explore the Camellia townhome. What makes this home popular is the front Dining room located at the Entry to the home. It's a versatile space and can be used as a Home Office, Game room. .. you decide! The Kitchen has plenty of counter space and overlooks the Gathering room. A half bath is also located on the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a large Owner's suite with a private bathroom that feels like what you would find in a single family home, plus a large walk-in closet. The second Bedroom, down the hallway for privacy, has its own walk in closet plus bathroom. The Laundry area is also located upstairs for convenience. Upgrades added include: Quartz Countertops, Tile throughout 1st floor, Stainless Steel Kitchen appliances, Blinds, TM Livewell Package, Modern Shaker style cabinets. Come learn more about this beautiful Camellia home design at Edgestone at Artisan Lakes Tampa, FL today! REPRESENTATIVE PHOTOS ADDED!

18. 2021-04-01
    status Pending 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    MLS# A4494296 ~ Built by Taylor Morrison ~ September Completion! Explore the Camellia townhome. What makes this home popular is the front Dining room located at the Entry to the home. It's a versatile space and can be used as a Home Office, Game room. .. you decide! The Kitchen has plenty of counter space and overlooks the Gathering room. A half bath is also located on the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a large Owner's suite with a private bathroom that feels like what you would find in a single family home, plus a large walk-in closet. The second Bedroom, down the hallway for privacy, has its own walk in closet plus bathroom. The Laundry area is also located upstairs for convenience. Upgrades added include: Quartz Countertops, Tile throughout 1st floor, Stainless Steel Kitchen appliances, Blinds, TM Livewell Package, Modern Shaker style cabinets. Come learn more about this beautiful Camellia home design at Edgestone at Artisan Lakes Tampa, FL today! REPRESENTATIVE PHOTOS ADDED!

19. 2021-03-17
    status Pending 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    MLS# A4494296 ~ Built by Taylor Morrison ~ September Completion! Explore the Camellia townhome. What makes this home popular is the front Dining room located at the Entry to the home. It's a versatile space and can be used as a Home Office, Game room. .. you decide! The Kitchen has plenty of counter space and overlooks the Gathering room. A half bath is also located on the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a large Owner's suite with a private bathroom that feels like what you would find in a single family home, plus a large walk-in closet. The second Bedroom, down the hallway for privacy, has its own walk in closet plus bathroom. The Laundry area is also located upstairs for convenience. Upgrades added include: Quartz Countertops, Tile throughout 1st floor, Stainless Steel Kitchen appliances, Blinds, TM Livewell Package, Modern Shaker style cabinets. Come learn more about this beautiful Camellia home design at Edgestone at Artisan Lakes Tampa, FL today! REPRESENTATIVE PHOTOS ADDED!

20. 2021-03-12
    listed $214,726 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    MLS# A4494296 ~ Built by Taylor Morrison ~ September Completion! Explore the Camellia townhome. What makes this home popular is the front Dining room located at the Entry to the home. It's a versatile space and can be used as a Home Office, Game room. .. you decide! The Kitchen has plenty of counter space and overlooks the Gathering room. A half bath is also located on the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a large Owner's suite with a private bathroom that feels like what you would find in a single family home, plus a large walk-in closet. The second Bedroom, down the hallway for privacy, has its own walk in closet plus bathroom. The Laundry area is also located upstairs for convenience. Upgrades added include: Quartz Countertops, Tile throughout 1st floor, Stainless Steel Kitchen appliances, Blinds, TM Livewell Package, Modern Shaker style cabinets. Come learn more about this beautiful Camellia home design at Edgestone at Artisan Lakes Tampa, FL today! REPRESENTATIVE PHOTOS ADDED!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,817
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and a functional layout.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes and increases value
• Both update bathrooms — modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update bathrooms — modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) $214,726 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Listed $214,726 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+49.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,817 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.