966 Mr G · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77560

$309,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 715 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $258/sqft · 22% below area Est $395k · 22% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream beach house in the heart of Crystal Beach! This charming 2-bed, 1-bath home offers an open floor plan with neutral tones and white cabinetry, creating a bright and airy living space. The oversized garage and slab beneath the house provide extra parking and an ideal entertainment area. Enjoy beach views from the balcony, perfect for watching both sunrises and sunsets. An outdoor shower adds convenience after a day in the sand. Fully furnished and centrally located, this property is ideal as a vacation getaway or a potential rental. Don’t miss out on this prime opportunity!

Key facts

• Outdoor shower
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• BEACH VIEWS FROM BALCONY
• OUTDOOR SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-925 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (43.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.0% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 715 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,984 (43.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 715 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,226
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -21.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
893 West Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	1mo	$334,900	$291	79
894 West Ln	0.21mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	5mo	$385,000	$321	71
700 Palmetto Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (-3%)	2mo	$474,900	$409	64
875 Palmetto Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+5%)	10mo	$395,000	$313	61
954 Palmetto Dr	0.21mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	12mo	$199,000	$184	56
948 Holiday	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (-9%)	11mo	$370,000	$339	54
886 Wommack	0.22mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,308 (+9%)	12mo	$480,000	$367	51
819 West Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+6%)	21mo	$490,000	$386	46
955 Townsend Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (-6%)	22mo	$379,000	$334	44
865 Main St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-7%)	13mo	$303,000	$271	42
842 Sea Spray Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+13%)	3mo	$435,000	$320	37
1316 Sunrise	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+11%)	19mo	$549,000	$412	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-55,750
• Equity at exit: $102,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-68,156
• Equity at exit: $133,807

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $397,000 ($335/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77560

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,558

Max offer price $175,984

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-711	-5% $-818	+0% $-925	+5% $-1,033	+10% $-1,140
Rent	-10% $-1,114	-5% $-1,020	+0% $-925	+5% $-831	+10% $-737
Rate	-1.0pp $-769	-0.5pp $-847	base $-925	+0.5pp $-1,006	+1.0pp $-1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
863 S Selwyn Rd Unit 1558167P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,483	$1.83	0d	1	0.88mi
970 S Jacks Rd Unit 1223248P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,621	$2.10	2d	1	1.01mi
1166 N Jacks Rd Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	918	$2,050	$2.23	52d	1	1.12mi
948 Kahla Dr Unit 1223246P Crystal Beach, TX	2.0	2.0	1227	$2,280	$1.86	0d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 715 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $309,900 Active 713 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $309,900 Active 712 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $309,900 Active 711 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $309,900 Active 710 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $309,900 Active 707 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,900 Active 705 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $309,900 Active 704 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $309,900 Active 702 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,900 Active 699 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,900 Active 698 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 697 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $309,900 Active 696 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 694 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 693 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $309,900 Active 692 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,900 Active 691 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,900 Active 690 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,900 Active 689 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,900 Active 688 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,900 Active 687 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,900 Active 685 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 683 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,900 Active 682 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,900 Active 681 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,900 Active 680 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 679 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 678 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 677 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 676 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,900 Active 675 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 674 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,900 Active 673 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $309,900 Active 672 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $309,900 Active 670 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,900 Active 668 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 667 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 664 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,900 Active 663 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,900 Active 662 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,900 Active 661 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,900 Active 659 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,900 Active 655 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,900 Active 654 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 653 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,900 Active 650 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 649 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 647 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 646 DOM
50. 2024-08-23
    listed $309,900 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Discover your dream beach house in the heart of Crystal Beach! This charming 2-bed, 1-bath home offers an open floor plan with neutral tones and white cabinetry, creating a bright and airy living space. The oversized garage and slab beneath the house provide extra parking and an ideal entertainment area. Enjoy beach views from the balcony, perfect for watching both sunrises and sunsets. An outdoor shower adds convenience after a day in the sand. Fully furnished and centrally located, this property is ideal as a vacation getaway or a potential rental. Don’t miss out on this prime opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$9,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,291
• − Management: −$2,291
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$16,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Crystal Beach is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers an open floor plan, modern appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is ideal for a vacation getaway or potential rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both update flooring — modern flooring can enhance both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update paint exterior — fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both update blinds — new blinds can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crenshaw El And Middle F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Chambers · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,095
• Household income: $112,602
• Rent vs Own: 4.9% rent · 95.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 100% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.80%
• Current HPI: 97.7497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-23 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $399,000 Galveston MLS
• 2022-09-11 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $435,000 Galveston MLS
• 2022-07-20 Price Changed $435,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-08 Price Changed $447,000 Galveston MLS
• 2022-05-08 Price Changed $447,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $485,000 HARMLS