5301 E Commerce Way #76101 · Sacramento, CA 95835

$384,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,323 sqft · Condo public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2022 $291/sqft · at area comps Est $399k · at est. $515/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautifully designed condo featuring a spacious open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the Great Room, kitchen, and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. This home offers 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. A 2-car garage adds convenience with plenty of room for parking and storage. The heart of the home is the modern kitchen, thoughtfully designed with sleek stainless steel appliances, elegant stone countertops, and a functional island with a built-in sink ideal for meal prep and gathering with family and friends. Upstairs, retreat to the private living spaces, including a well-appointed

Key facts

• $515 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,768 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.77%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,712
• List price: $384,900
• Delta: -2.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $120,372
• Equity at exit: $324,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $392,317
• Equity at exit: $676,133

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,857/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$515
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-1,003

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,186

Max offer price $207,768

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	23d	2	0.07mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	16d	3	0.07mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	1d	1	0.16mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	1d	1	0.18mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	12d	1	0.39mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	43d	1	0.44mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	3d	1	0.57mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	1d	1	0.60mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	43d	1	0.63mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	43d	2	0.70mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	7d	1	0.73mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	43d	1	0.84mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	43d	1	0.86mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	43d	1	1.08mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	2d	3	1.09mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	1d	26	1.16mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	1d	1	1.23mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	17d	3	1.23mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	21d	2	1.23mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	43d	1	1.26mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	14d	1	1.28mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	23d	1	1.47mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $515 · $6,180/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $384,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,857 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,857 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$5,857
• − Insurance: −$3,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − HOA: −$6,180
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$18,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+49.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,857 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.